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Image via CrunchBase

Google announced their acquisition of Danny Hillis’s Metaweb, owners of Freebase which allows people to store data as entities, together with relationships.

This is a big step in the rise of Web 3.0, also known as the Semantic Web, which will allow machines to compute using human understanding or human knowledge to a certain extent. Google was already overtaken by the awesome WolframAlpha knowledge computation engine and had to close the gap.

Google writes that their acquisition will be used to enhance search for tougher questions which a search on pure keywords is lacking. That kind of search, to quote Google’s example of “colleges on the west coast with tuition under $30,000″, necessitates additional capabilities. These include the entity being queried, its type, its relationships with other entities, and so on.

Although the initial use will be to enhance search, right after this comes the automation of human understanding. With logical predicates, one will be able to construct a body of knowledge and infer deeper meaning from information available on the web.

For instance, “Google acquires Metaweb” can be broken down into the semantic relationships below (like Thomson-ReutersOpenCalais already does):

Acquirer: Google

Acquired: Metaweb

Relationship: Acquisition

Status: Confirmed.

Within the trading context, such a news headline could be used to automate Merger Arbitrage orders (Provided, of course that Metaweb was publicly traded).

Hence, to some extent at this point, computers will be able to ‘understand’ and interpret the meaning of human language and this information, in turn, could be used for further automation.

But beyond this step, with machine learning, comes the promise of an even wilder web, a web with sufficiently advanced understanding of human language, knowledge and mind, that it is indistinguishable from a sentient form.

Watch this video from Freebase to understand why entities are important:

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Google + Apple = Gapple
Image by ~C4Chaos via Flickr

Following the Google I/O developer conference, it is good to make an update on Google’s sprawling offerings and business explorations and conclude as to what their strategy long-term is, which I do at the end of this post.

Google’s AdMob acquisition goes through

Last Friday, the FTC actually allowed the deal to go through and Omar Hamoui’s AdMob is now part of the Google stable. Apple’s foray into mobile advertising with Quattro Wireless must have helped the FTC make its decision.

I expect an additional lucrative revenue stream from Mobile Adverts for Google, as mobiles (smart phones, tablets) take over.

Google TV

At Google IO, during the Day 2 Keynote, Eric Schmidt unveiled Google TV. What I grasp from the keynote presentation and Google’s partners is that they will heavily back Adobe, especially Flash.

In fact, Vic Gundotra did send a jab toward Apple, using the latter’s own past words “It is a future we don’t want”, referring to access being controlled by one man, one company, one platform, just as Apple jabbed IBM in 1984 at the launch of the Mackintosh.

Google TV’s partners

On stage with Schmidt, featured Google’s partners:

  • Intel
  • Sony
  • Adobe
  • Logitech
  • Dish Networks

Augmented TV

What Google envisions is a social way of watching TV, or a melding of the web and television platforms. In this respect, it is ‘Augmented Television’.

Google’s strides with online video

The following events are very significant in my opinion, in semantics and timing, especially when taken in light of Apple’s own projects:

  • Google open-sources the VP8 codec
  • They open-sourced the VP8 codec which they obtained following the acquisition of On2. They are giving it away as a new format called WebM, which is in fact a version of the Matroska container, and which supports Ogg Vorbis Audio. Ogg Vorbis is open-source.

  • Google funds the Ogg Theora optimization on ARM platform
  • Google decided to finance the optimization of the open-source video codec for the ARM platform. This can mean only one or two things:
    - It’s about mobile video, as ARM has the best platform for mobiles & tablets computing, platform heavily relied upon by many licensees like Qualcomm, NVIDIA, Texas Instruments, Marvell, and several others.

  • Google acquires Global IP Solutions
  • This acquisition appears to me to be more about the actual Intellectual Property than the technology itself, but it does give Google access to interesting things, including, but not limited to:

    - Web-based, real-time, high-quality audio and video streaming
    - Web-based audio-conferencing and video-conferencing

  • Google acquires Episodic
  • This gives Google access to marketing data, but also a monetization platform for videos as well as great user experience experience (yes, you read that well).

  • Google acquires BumpTop
  • You may think that this is not related to online video, but in reality it is, albeit in an indirect way.

    As I mentioned in my post in 2007, BumpTop was more suited to touch-screens. This acquisition, therefore, can only mean that Google is making a big push for their tablet computing platforms, since BumpTop as is needs a bigger screen than that of smartphones and is not suited to the Desktop and mouse.

    Add this fact to the race of online video/video-conferencing acquisitions that Google is running and you can see that the Tablet platform, running Android or Chrome O.S. should ideally support video-conferencing, something that Apple forgot to include built-in in the iPad.

Google makes Core APIs accessible – Google Prediction API

Machine Learning, to me, is one of Google’s core strengths. It is therefore amazing to see them open up access to its Google Prediction API. Some critics will say that it’s a black box because you can’t choose the internal algorithm. I say that it is rather a blessing, because startups will be able to leverage Google’s algorithms and infrastructure to build their own technology for free or nearly free (some costs will apply when using Google Storage, which is necessary):

Google Prediction API

Another API Google offers is Google Latitude API, which will help with all those location-based services.

Conclusion on Google’s Strategy

  • It’s obvious that Google is focusing on mobile connectivity, ‘mobile’ here, being smart phones and tablet computers as well as probable laptops which will run Android or Chrome O.S.

    The new mobile tablets should feature video-conferencing heavily.

  • The fact that audio-conferencing technologies has also been acquired shows that Google may ramp up their VOIP services into full-fledged Business Telephony services. Look for Google Voice & Google talk integration with new audio and video-conferencing solutions going forward.
  • Google is removing risk in their online video offerings by funding the Ogg Theora video optimization and open-sourcing the VP8 codec.

    The risks are:

    1. The need to pay license fees for the H.264 codec favoured by Apple, which would impact their bottom line. Currently, they do support this codec, but they will, in the future, have the possibility of switching to their own. Open-Source, long-term is the better strategy.

    2. The possibility that Adobe’s Flash does not advance as well as Adobe has promised

  • The Core APIs opening means that Google is also poising as an alternate cloud platform for online startups to launch and scale easily. In this space, Google is trading on Amazon’s EC2 and S3 platforms, especially with Google App Engine too.
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    Google Nexus One

    Google Nexus One

    Following yesterday’s Google Nexus One launch, based on the reading habits of most people, who scan texts and read in an ‘F’ form, most people would have missed the following insights which are at the very end of the articles:

    From Tim O’Reilly, who noticed and amplified the buzz around Web 2.0 four years ago:

    Picasa and iPhoto both sport image recognition, but Apple has to train its algorithms on sample data sets, while Google gets to train Picasa on billions of user images. As Peter Norvig, Google’s chief scientist, once said to me, “We don’t have better algorithms. We just have more data.” Collective intelligence is the secret sauce of Web 2.0, and the future of all computing, and by locking user data into individual devices, Apple cuts itself off from this future. Rather than having MobileMe as a separate revenue add-on, Apple needs to make all of its applications web-connected by default, so that they can learn from all their users.

    What we see then is a collision of paradigms, perhaps as profound as the transition between the character-based era of computing and the GUI based era of the Mac and Windows. We’re moving from the era in which the device is primary and the web is an add-on, to the era in which a device and its applications are fundamentally dependent on the internet operating system that provides location, speech recognition, image recognition, social network awareness, and other fundamental data services.

    We’re in for an interesting ride. – Tim O’Reilly

    Good to see Tim quote Peter Norvig, who is an expert in AI. However, I think Norvig understates one of Google’s keystone algorithms: Machine Learning.

    From David Pogue (Pogue is wrong, the machine doesn’t lack a multi-touch screen – it’s software disabled, but Pogue has some insights too):

    But at the start, at least, the results are a pair of head-scratchers. The Nexus One is an excellent app phone, fast and powerful but marred by some glitches and missing features — a worthy competitor to the Droid, if not the iPhone. The Google phone store is a neat, centralized place to buy phones, but so far, it offers zero advantages over buying a T-Mobile phone any other way.

    Even so, you should root for the Google Store’s success, because the obnoxious policies and fees of the American cellphone companies have gotten out of control. Anything with even a fighting chance of putting power and choice back in your hands is cause for celebration.- David Pogue

    From Jon Stokes, comes a highly insightful take on how this disrupts the existing status quo that the marriage of carrier-subsidized handsets creates relative to telecommunications quality:

    Right now, with specific phone models available only on specific carriers, consumers must pick a carrier and phone combination. Many consumers actually pick a phone first, and then pick their carrier based on it (witness the mass customer defection to AT&T when the iPhone was announced). If you want to keep using that phone, you have to keep using that carrier. If you want to switch phones without incurring a huge early termination fee (ETF), then you’re limited to the selection that your carrier offers in your area.

    This is bad for consumers, but it’s great for carriers. Carriers don’t have to compete solely on network quality; rather, they compete based on a combination of network quality and phone selection. And because they compete partly (mostly?) on phone selection, their incentives are twofold:

    They want to offer the largest number of attractive, leading-edge phones in order to attract a user base, and
    They want to wring the most money out of that user base for the lowest possible cost.
    Incentive number 2 is why wireless networks have performance issues, and why AT&T’s network gets more complaints than all others. Call it the “iPhone curse,” after the “resource curse” that seems to leave oil-rich nations mired in petty tyranny. Because AT&T has ensnared—and locked in—legions of consumers with the iPhone, the company’s incentive is to minimize their infrastructure spending so that they can maximize per-user profits. AT&T also has a motive to nickel-and-dime you to death, because it has you locked in with that amazing phone and its accompanying ETF.

    In sum, as long as Apple’s red-hot iPhone keeps new customers coming to AT&T and keeps existing customers around in spite of the poor service quality, the carrier has little incentive to actually improve its network, and every incentive to cram as many iPhone users as possible onto each cell tower.

    If Google’s carrier-independent store succeeds spectacularly, it could break the curse. If the idea behind it succeeds, that could break the curse as well. Wouldn’t it be great if Apple ran a similarly carrier-independent iPhone store, or Nokia did the same with its smartphone lineup? I, for one, want to live in a world where a carrier competes for my business by being cheaper and faster than the next guy, and not because it has a phone I want. That’s why I’m rooting for Google’s store idea to catch on, regardless of what the Nexus One kills or doesn’t kill.

    Other interesting articles out yesterday and today which talk about mobile telecom industry disruption from Google, which I foretold in 2007 myself:

  • The Google Phone’s Disruptive Potential
  • Google’s biggest phone move: disrupting carriers by selling direct to you
  • A week after my “Clash of the Titans – Google vs Apple in 2010 and beyond”, The Financial Times has an article today by John Gapper, called “Google’s open battle with Apple”, which delves into how open or closed each company is.

    One thing both Apple and Google have learned is that a solely proprietary strategy has flaws, just as one of pure openness does. They compete by openly expanding their reach while staying partly closed.

    So take with a pinch of salt all manifestos about complete openness. Any company that is as valuable as Google is wilier than that. – John Gapper

    The thing is, in reality, it has always been true to compete aggressively around your core strengths in business. The fact that Google highly leverages open-source contributions bi-directionally gives it an optimizing edge that Apple does not have in the long-term.

    In other news, Apple ditches Intel for Qualcomm’s SnapDragon platform (update: actually, this links, says it’s NOT a SnapDragon), which already powers the Nexus One. Big win for Qualcomm, but also for ARM

    Additional good news for ARM: Marvell shows the first quad-core ARM-powered chip (Fortune/GigaOM).

    This does not bode well for Intel, which already had troubles launching the Larrabee chip, but also has a few lawsuits to contend with, including the notion of making its compiler work well only on its own chips.

    Bloomberg has a good article on the chip wars today and “How Intel is vulnerable now as people shift to mobile phones to surf”.

    Why Google trumps Microsoft on the Web, even if Microsoft buys Yahoo.

    Scott Karp, a professional blogger, has a good explanation: “Google is a web-native company”.

    The Wallstrip Edge – Howard Linzon

    Substitute MS for Apple above?

    2010 is turning out every bit as exciting as I thought it would be.

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    Google Nexus One

    Google Nexus One

    As expected, the first Google-branded phone launched today with a panel of invited bloggers and influencers, who each went home with both a Nexus One and a Sim Card to go with it.

    One audience member asked “Where’s the disruption, You’re Google, if you can’t do it, who can?”, to which the reply was “Baby steps”. It’s all about going forward in your plans stealthily, and I guess things would have been very different had the AdMod acquisition gone through smoothly. Apple retaliated by acquiring Quattro Wireless today itself, showing us how the clash between these two titans is heating up right into the start of 2010 as I wrote earlier, but I wonder how Apple is going to meld ads into the user experience.

    More disruption will occur when Google Voice and Google Talk and the Gizmo5 technology is integrated into the handset. Remember: it isn’t about the handset with Google. Google is leveraging its brand to change how you access Telecommunications. It’s about a vision of making business more efficient and grabbing market-share where others are sleeping on their laurels, and of course, serving the end-user.

    Read the complete specifications. Some noteworthy ones:

  • Qualcomm’s 1GHz SnapDragon is there as planned in its QSD 8250 incarnation. This thing can support up to 12 Megapixels for the camera and a resolution of 1280×720
  • The gorgeous 3.7-inch AMOLED touchscreen has 800 x 480 pixels resolution with a whopping 100,000:1 contrast ratio.
  • Photos can be location-tagged thanks to the AGPS receiver and integration with YouTube is seamless
  • All the features for Augmented Reality apps are available as mentioned in my previous post
  • Google’s speech-to-text is included so you can, among other things search by voice or command Google Earth by voice (or any apps with text fields basically)
  • Try the 3D tour here: http://www.google.com/googlephone/tour/

    Try the interface itself and order from here if you’re luckily living in the USA, Hong Kong and Singapore – No such luck for us Canadians as the message “Sorry, the Nexus One phone is not available in your country” attests:

    http://www.google.com/phone

    Price: US $529 unlocked, $179 with T-Mobile contract, and in spring, Verizon and Vodafone support are coming.

    Multi-Touch support

    Andy Rubin seemed to fumble a bit when asked about multi-touch on the Nexus One. “We’ll consider it” and “it’s a software issue” means that the hardware itself is capable of multi-touch.

    In addition, the Dolphin browser supports multi-touch.

    Flash support

    Adrian Ludwig from Adobe Systems demonstrates the forthcoming Flash support (it’s not there out of the box), but Apple’s Flash support for the iPhone is still broken as I wrote previously.

    Open handset alliance and Open-source

    No doubt this first incarnation is going to be hacked (hacked as in optimized by the Android/open-source community) to death as it relies on open-source, and so I expect many enhancements to be forthcoming and frequent. Google announced that a growing number of companies have joined the Open Handset Alliance from which Apple and Microsoft are conspicuously absent.

    More links to whet your appetite

    Phandroid’s review – where the iPhone trumps both the Droid and the Nexus one in a browser page loading test with scrolling.

    Tim O’Reilly’s long piece about it

    TechCrunch’s review

    Gizmodo’s overview.

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    1. From Search to Results in Push mode

    Instead of searching, the web and computers will push results to you based on your interests and past searches. Users will be able to filter or vote up or down the results.

    2. Advances in Human-Machine interfaces

    I expect Google to play a major role in these:

  • Thought Recognition
  • Though-recognition will come into the mainstream, probably in the form of game controllers. The same technology but with different algorithms and implementations will be used in machine to record users’ dreams.

  • Natural-language commands, Gesture recognition
  • Both Speech and Gesture recognitiong will become common-place as they are applied increasingly in art and productivity. Music and Art will be created digitally and increasingly through gestures.

    3. Feelings/Formative-years Marketing

    The forthcoming release of the Google Nexus One and the rumoured Tablet made me feel like when I was a kid imagining the world of possibilities with computers and thinking about Silicon Valley and watching “Whizz Kids”. This feeling is powerful to me.

    I foresee that deliberately marketing new products or services to people using the feelings they experienced or expressed relative to their environment and cultural exposure during their formative early years or other period will become a technique used by marketers.

    This will be even easier now that Social Networks applications like Facebook allow you to tag your interests and that increasingly, Gen Y’ers and newer generations will live this digital lifestyle naturally in the open.

    Major backlashes occur because of Governmental or para-statal organization or other organizations obtain personal information from companies. This may involve any of Facebook, Twitter, Google or Baidu.

    4. From Augmented Reality to Augmented Human

    During the first years of the decade, Augmented Reality will take hold and become ubiquitous. It is, however, rather intrusive, and there will be a transition to invisible, non-intrusive Augmented Reality systems.

    These new systems will range from wearable computing systems, to fully embedded systems within the human body, ushering the age of the Augmented Human.

    There will be much debating about the applications of Augmented Humans as it will be a necessity for survival but also subject to much abuse from the wearer or to the wearer.

    5. Cloud Computing

    Cloud computing will become a commodity – one person through the web and through Natural Language will be able to command vast networks of computing power to bring back the results of analyses and reports in a human-readable format.

    Books and magazines in paper form disappear and entire libraries are hosted in the cloud. Similarly, more Art & Culture is digitized, i.e. what happens to Books also happens to Music and TV.

    Google dominates the cloud computing technology space.

    6. The Exploratory Search Engine

    Google was crucial in organizing the web’s structure. Wolfram Alpha is an evolutionary step above all the search engines up to now, allowing us to compute meaning.

    In the next decade, a new search engine is built which also enables you to explore the solution space around the result you reached for your search term by showing you the best web application to explore the subject further.

    e.g. Searching for Orion, the constellation, will provide you information about Orion, but also show you the web app which enables you to explore the sky constellation as well.

    7. People’s attention-span in the Western world continues to drop

    Already, I have noticed how people have a lot of difficulty following a few logically-linked sentences. In the era of Twitter and micro chunks of information overload, people will have a tendency to outsource a lot of the thinking to others or to machines. This will heavily influence how people communicate among themselves.

    Most conversations in presence of people will devolve into the superficial, relegating the argumentative, logically structured discourse to seminars or conferences.

    Business opportunities arise to help people filter out unwanted information pushed to them all the time.

    8. Location-based services alert you to any danger or opportunity in your vicinity

    Location-aware devices and applications, together with real-time human or machine feeds will enable you to be aware in near real-time of either dangers in your immediate surroundings or opportunities like promotions in a shop or other opportunities.

    9. Google disrupts the HealthCare industry

    No one foresees the scale of this event but when it arrives, it makes complete sense. This includes Google and its partners (like 23AndMe) helping to better diagnose your symptoms, make better prescriptions and forecasting potentially life-threatening or disabling diseases in your future.

    Managing one’s own Health risks based on one’s genetic makeup becomes a normal part of living healthily.

    In other posts, I also foresee that Google will disrupt the traditional Telecommunications Industry:

  • Google Telecom, Hello!
  • Top 9 reasons why the Google Nexus One beats the Apple iPhone
  • 10. General AI and Strong AI

    Google becomes the first company to build and market a robot with General AI, including the ability to learn and grow in intelligence as well as automatically update itself through the web.

    Strong AI emerges from the Web, the network of machines, sensors and other networkable devices with General AI robots as well as Augmented Humans.

    This causes a drastic increase in the level of consciousness of Human beings, while many of the older generations of people are completely lost as to why life is no longer how it used to be.

    This also causes the emergence of a form of Global Intelligence for Earth, making it more aware of its own environment. Efficient energy systems become more prominent and affordable in a new age of greener living.

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    Bloomberg reported that Twitter inked two deals for a total of 25M USD with Google and Microsoft so that tweets can be inserted in their search results page.

    This shows how essential real-time has become on the Web.

    For me it’s a big win for the underlying open source technology framework for Rapid Web Development, Ruby on Rails, which I have been recommending to enterprises since about 4 years ago.

    Where are you on the Technology Adoption Lifecycle below regarding Ruby and Ruby on Rails? Have you innovated? Are you an early adopter because you understand the business implications, or will you be at the other end of the spectrum, a laggard?

    Technology Adoption Lifecycle

    Technology Adoption Lifecycle

    The news is, however, huge for Twitter, which is said by Bloomberg to be profitable now.

    Twitter has become a platform essential to the Web in Marketing/Advertising, Customer Care (though less as people understand this less) but also in Finance. Witness Howard Linzon’s StockTwits, itself leveraged by NASDAQ’s Portfolio Manager application for the iPhone.

    It’s huge news because the real-time web can be input signals into high-frequency trading strategies.

    If Twitter does an IPO, I won’t miss it.

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    Adobe Flash on Apple iPhone1. Apple blocks Flash on the iPhone and iPod touch

    2. Google is open to open-source contributions.

    The Google Nexus One uses the Linux kernel. Google supports Open Standards and the Nexus One will too.

    Apple blocks open-source efforts. I have to wait and re-jailbreak my device every time the O.S. is updated making me lose precious time and it’s just a hassle. Apple prevents me from using one of the most useful third-party provided application that existed, which is to have the whole of Wikipedia – the sum of human knowledge – accessible offline in my hand.

    Google, on the other hand, has open-sourced Android. Linux is open-source.

    3. Google-subsidized Telecom

    Traditional Telcos in Northern America are greedy companies who don’t listen to their customers. I want Google to undermine them by subsidizing my Telecommunications through mobile ads and use of their services.

    Why do I think this will happen? The answer is here in three parts:
    3.1. The essence of Google’s success (2007)
    This explains how Google relies on ads to subsidize many of their technologies, but also:

    • “massive revenues from contextualized highly-targeted ads”
    • “all problem solving is some kind of search”
    • “optimized architecture”

    3.2. Google Telecom, Hello! (2007)

    • Number 1 Internet brand name => a Google-branded device is highly valuable.
    • Massive purchase of Dark Fiber
    • Dispatching of large number of Google Data Centers around the US, each built on highly optimized hardware and software
    • Google Talk integration into GMail
    • GrandCentral Acquisition -> Google Voice now
    • ” I believe Google Telecom will offer free calls locally and worldwide to fixed telephone lines and mobiles to individual users and basic paid access for businesses and bring a more severe disruption of the Telecom industry as it will rely on getting more advertising through these channels.”

    3.3. See “Google ad-subsidized Telecom“, my video about at the Deloitte Canada TMT Predictions 2010 and vote for me (you can vote once per day) (2009).

    • Admob Acquisition
    • Gizmo 5 acquisition
    • Tinkering with free Wi-fi in 47 airports
    • Google branded phone
    • Disruptive behavior

    4. Feats of Engineering

    Google values Engineering and Engineers. This is why they have scalable and robust technological architecture.

    5. Google Nexus One is a General Purpose Computing device & has Multi-tasking out-of-the-box

    The Google Nexus One phone will be a General Purpose Mobile computing device. The Apple iPhone isn’t or you need to jailbreak and get two separate apps like BackGrounder and MultiFl0w to enable these. Besides, it’s more fun to compute:

    6. Google services Integration

    I use so many Google services and apps that it’s unmentionable. I was an early adopter of Google search and I also have a Google Voice account.

    7. The Google Nexus One is incredibly fast

    The Google Nexus One has an optimized Android 2.1 O.S. as well as the Qualcomm 1 GHz Snapdragon CPU/Platform, itself architected around an ARM chip.

    8. The Nexus One is beautiful

    Check out the screenshots at Engadget.

    9. And lastly, the Google Nexus One will also make phone calls. The iPhone drops them:

    Dear Google, I want my own Google Nexus One.

    Thank you.

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    TMT contest

    This past week-end was abuzz with the internal release to employees of the Google Phone, Nexus One. Although manufactured by HTC, it is going to be branded Google.

    For me, the implications are staggering as Google subsidizes many of its applications because 95%+ (some say 99%) of its revenues come from highly-targeted advertising and it’s one more step in a full-blown Mobile Telecom service offering from Google.

    I was therefore divided between either writing a new blog post about analysis and the significance of it or making the gist of the argument for a short presentation so as to participate and stimulate the Deloitte Canada MyTMT Predictions 2010. I ended up doing the latter.

    You can find my TMT prediction for 2010 and vote for it once per day on the Deloitte/Wildfire Facebook application here: “Google ad-subsidized Telecom”

    Katheline Jean-Pierre (Web Marketing Strategist at Deloitte Canada) and Laurent Maisonnave (Social Media and Web Video Marketing specialist, as well as President of “Île-Sans-Fil” which provides free wireless in Montreal) both mention my entries on their respective blogs (the content is in French).

    I couldn’t find any extensive analysis on the web during this week-end, except this one on the Forrester Blog for Consumer Product Strategy Professionals by Charles S. Golvin. Golvin asks a good question about the financing as most handsets are sold lower because of the accompanying plan:

    Will the phone be sold at full retail price, or will it be subsidized?

    However, my own interest is in:

      - whether Google’s positioning will morph into a full-fledged Telecom service
      - whether it will be significantly based on widespread Wi-Fi and WiMAX capability so that the possibility of free calls worldwide can be explored
      - to what extent this service will be subsidized by ads

    In other words, that the significance of the Google Nexus One phone goes beyond the release of a phone, unlocked, directly to the end customer, “upending the carrier model”.

    The value lies in what is beyond:

    Massive Disruption of the Telecom Industry.

    As opposed to Golvin, I have no doubt there will be some form of subsidy for the Telco service – they’re doing it right now with Google Voice with rates lower than Skype. I do believe that Golvin’s scenario about subsidizing the handset is plausible too as they need to position it firmly against the iPhone. Actually, I wrote about Google’s strategy for Telecom before in 2007 in “Google Telecom, Hello” here on YashLabs.

    Also, an earlier analysis of Google as a company and why I like them is here: “The essence of Google’s success”. In this analysis, also from 2007, is why I believe that some form of subsidization by ads is inevitable – it is Google’s lifeblood as a business.

    Even the Crown Jewel in Google’s Technology Portfolio, PageRank, is offered to the masses for free when you are searching thanks to ads.

    “They forget the massive revenues from contextualized highly-targeted ads and they don’t understand that all problem-solving is some type of search.”

    I LOVE that line!!!

    Best

    Hugh (Hugh McLeod of Gaping Void)

    What are your TMT predictions for 2010? Participate in the contest. Looking forward to seeing your take.

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    If you had a computer with a world-wide model spanning much of civilized history and which predicts significant Economic/Political turning points to the day, what would you do as an investor?

    The date, it turns out, will be April 19th or April 20th. The host at the ContraHour blog reveals he is watching the USD rather than the broad stock market whereas I had interpreted it as a ‘Get-out-of-stocks’ signal. This is significant to me amongst the talks of a Global Currency before and after the G20 summit. Besides, I am convinced myself the dollar will crash. Or it could be a massive event stemming from Quant funds deleveraging as they are taken aback by the recent rally when the fundamentals are still very bad. Here’s another similar view from Business Insider.

    I wrote about Martin Armstrong and his flabbergasting model in this post on YashLabs – A Global Economic Crisis – New models for investments

    In short, Armstrong has detected a historical cycle for major events based on Pi. What else could be anyway, right? A cycle – circle – cyclical – circular – it can only be a model incorporating Pi if it’s regular. In his model, there’s also a time-frame for the collapse of whole political or societal structures, and that would coincide with the collapse of the U.S.A. around next year or in two years.

    Read Martin Armstrong’s latest at ContraHour, Why models are our only hope – should we create a model to manage our social-economy?

    In it, he recounts in additional detail how his Judge (Armstrong writes from jail) seemingly accuses him of inspiring himself from the movie Pi by Aronosky, when it fact, the movie is based on Armstrong himself.

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    Sygenics Evolution logo I mentioned Sygenics‘ Evolution before in my DemoCampMontreal report in glowing terms. I have since met with Raj Vadavia, the CEO and Thomas Fedoryak, the Chief Strategic Officer of Sygenics. They have taken the time to describe Evolution more precisely so that I could improve on the technical accuracy of the article. Thomas sent the edits and I incorporated them into the blog post today.

    Since the patent was pending at the time of the initial report, Thomas said that the website could not divulge more details of the underlying technology, nor did he want to simply leave a comment on the blog post for rectification.

    This technology is innovative and nothing short of a revolution in persistent data storage and what it enables above the data layer. Evolution makes your data dynamic and adaptive. I wrote before in a follow-up post that Evolution and Evonium’s DARWIN technology based on it enabled Rapid Business Process Re-engineering. It is also clear that the whole field of Business Process Optimization is changed considerably with Evolution.

    That is, the organization’s mechanical heart of IT + Business + Finance just comes closer to the adaptive organism metaphor thanks to Evolution.

    I foresee a very bright future for Evolution based on the incredible discussion we had Raj, Thomas and myself and forthcoming plans of Sygenics that I will not divulge.

    We also had a fantastic over-arching discussion about AI, a field which is of tremendous interest to all three of us.

    I mentioned Ruby on Rails once more, and that merging RoR with Evolution would bring a lot of business value for the whole Business + e-Business stack. That would entail interfacing RoR and Evolution or RoR and Evonium’s DARWIN. Additionally, a Ruby bridge for the Evolution API would be fantastic. I mentioned how building a parser for Ruby can be difficult right now, and that Ruby 2.0 would be much faster than the current implementation thanks to an updated virtual machine, YARV. Antonio Cangiano from IBM Toronto Software Labs has an interesting shootout between different Ruby implementations.

    I urge you to read the updated post, or to contact Raj and Thomas. I also have two detailed brochures about Evolution which I can give away thanks to Raj and Thomas.

    A common theme in my blog since I came to Montreal is “where are the smart people doing great things in Montreal?”, and here they were with me sharing a great meal, ideas and advice, and also telling me more about this astonishing technology. And it’s all from Montreal.

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    Sergei Brin - Larry Page

    In this post, I explore the critical factors in Google’s success.

    1. The Founders

    Larry Page and Sergey Brin are extremely intelligent

    They both went to Montessori schools. They didn’t like each other much when they met at Stanford University and they were very argumentative with each other initially but still became co-founders. I propose it’s a valuable thing to do provided both people are intelligent. The meta-mind brought forth by conversations between seemingly opposed clever minds is capable of wonders.

    2. PageRank

    There is value in the links to a page

    3. Search

    All problem-solving is some kind of search

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    If you aren’t in Google, you don’t exist

    4. Hardware Platform

    Own your own array of highly-optimized networked cheap PC machines

    5. Software Platform

    Leverage open-source platforms

    All of Google’s servers run on GNU/Linux.

    Google recruited Guido Van Rossum, the father of open-source programming language Python. Google are also looking at using Ruby.

    Leverage distributed computing

    Google has a massively parallel and scalable architecture thanks to the MapReduce algorithm.

    Without understanding functional programming, you can’t invent MapReduce, the algorithm that makes Google so massively scalable.

    MapReduce is, in retrospect, obvious to anyone who remembers from their 6.001-equivalent programming class that purely functional programs have no side effects and are thus trivially parallelizable.

    The very fact that Google invented MapReduce, and Microsoft didn’t, says something about why Microsoft is still playing catch up trying to get basic search features to work, while Google has moved on to the next problem: building…the world’s largest massively parallel supercomputer. I don’t think Microsoft completely understands just how far behind they are on that wave. – Joel Spolsky


    Optimized Architecture

    Google went so far as to write their own low-level device drivers to access the hard drives on their servers to optimize their architecture.

    6. Contextual Advertising

    Google is the ‘homepage’ of the internet, the best search engine

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    highly-targeted links are more likely to get clicked

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    Where there is business there’s a need for advertising and marketing

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    About 99 percent of Google’s revenue comes from advertising – Slate (2005)

    7. Machine Learning

    Make the machine learn human behavior through the internet

    Google is using this principle of artificial intelligence to enable suggestions for your misspellings.

    Google is using this with a statistical method to enable better text translations by feeding human-translated texts into a software algorithm.

    Google will be the first to build a General AI.


    8. Feedback Loop

    Recruit intelligent people

    Google has a history of recruiting top engineers through puzzles similar to IQ tests. One example was on a billboard in Silicon Valley in 2004, reading:

    {first 10-digit prime found in consecutive digits of e}.com

    Solving it brought you to a web page with more instructions, the final one being a page where you could submit your resume to Google.

    This was an interesting puzzle and I explored it using a spigot algorithm for the extraction of the digits until I found that it was smarter and less time-consuming to actually Google the digits of e instead of computing them myself. One day all calculations will be done this way. All problem-solving is some kind of search.

    Coming back to the subject at hand, having such recruitment puzzles have enabled Google to get excellent engineers and this gives them an edge in creativity, engineering, R&D and innovation.

    Google has also since recognized the need for a more diversified approached to recruiting.

    The best-of-breed work environment and perks have enabled Google to retain its strategically important workforce. In turn, being the best place to work in has made Google very attractive to non-Google people.

    Build a scalable organization

    Recognizing the need for a strategy, management and business development specialist for the technology sector was a clever move.

    Google founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin recruited Eric Schmidt from Novell, where he led that company’s strategic planning, management and technology development as chairman and CEO. Since coming to Google, Eric has focused on building the corporate infrastructure needed to maintain Google’s rapid growth as a company and on ensuring that quality remains high while product development cycle times are kept to a minimum. Along with Larry and Sergey, Eric shares responsibility for Google’s day-to-day operations. Eric’s Novell experience culminated a 20-year record of achievement as an Internet strategist, entrepreneur and developer of great technologies. His well-seasoned perspective perfectly complements Google’s needs as a young and rapidly growing search engine with a unique corporate culture.

    Google has gone from a scalable search engine to a scalable organization.

    Further reading:
    A look inside the Google talent machine
    Good agile, bad agile by Steve Yegge.
    Is Google too powerful? – Business Week cover story
    Youtube vs Boob tube – New York Magazine
    Interview with Eric Schmidt by the excellent Fred Vogelstein in Wired.
    As Google challenged Viacom and Microsoft, its CEO feels lucky by Fred Vogelstein again.
    An older, previously unpublished interview of Eric Schmidt by Fred Vogelstein.
    Google – the Ultimate Money-Making Machine by Alex Iskold at Read/Write Web.

    April 2007 seems to be Google’s media month. YashLabs, BusinessWeek, New York Magazine and Wired all have reflected on Google this month.

    Amazingly, some people still think of Google as just a search engine company. They forget the massive revenues from contextualized highly-targeted ads and they don’t understand that all problem-solving is some type of search. This is crucial to understanding just how much of a competitive advantage Google has over everybody else. I just finished reading one of the Wired interviews and this quote by Eric Schmidt validates my point of view which I wrote about on the 1st of April:

    So one way of thinking about it is it all gets back to search. If you think about YouTube, YouTube is a “searching the world’s videos” problem, right? They all have to be there, but how do you find them? What I guess I’m trying to say is that search is still the killer app. – Eric Schmidt, CEO, Google

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    Robotics Ethics

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    Asimov on Throne by Rowena Morrill Dr. Isaac Asimov on throne by Rowena Morill.

    South Korea is one of the most technologically advanced country in the world. Having identified robots as a pillar of future economic development, South Korea is now working on a Robot Ethics Charter which will be made available to manufacturers and users alike later this year.

    The South Korean ministry of commerce, industry and energy initiated the project. The Charter will serve to protect both robots and humans as their relations grow.

    It is especially imperative to do so as the merging of Artificial Intelligence and Robots will bring about in the future, alternate beings with more raw processing power and brute force than the brain and the human flesh, bone, tendon and muscle organism.

    Isaac Asimov and the Laws of Robotics

    There is a fair chance that the Charter will me developed along the lines already explored by a most famous science-fiction author.

    Isaac Asimov was a very prolific science and science-fiction writer and certainly one of the most influential sf writers ever. I first read about Asimov from my father’s book collection which was kept in a piece of furniture in my bedroom – Asimov’s Nightfall. One of the best short stories he has written is “The Last Question“.

    Asimov described the three Laws of Robotics which define safe Robot-Human interaction in his story “Runaround” in 1942:

    1. A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm

    2. A robot must obey orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law

    3. A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law

    Later on, Asimov also added the Zeroth Law of Robotics which supersedes the first three above:

    0. A robot may not injure humanity, or, through inaction, allow humanity to come to harm

    Managing Technological Evolution by Scenarios

    Technology progresses exponentially, not linearly. Since most people tend to think linearly when extrapolating future trends, it is necessary to prepare early and prepare well for the Robotics Age.

    In the team assembled to work on the charter, South Korea has included a Science-Fiction writer. Sci-Fi, when well done, is an exploration of the future of today’s science with all the sociological, legal, political and psychological ramifications. Here again, by including an SF writer in the Robot Ethics Charter development team, South Korea does its planning well.

    In fact, a generally good strategy to prepare for ‘unforeseen’ scientific and technological evolution is to map out all the scenarios already written by science-fiction authors. This mirrors scenario-based strategic business planning by the Shell team.

    Honda ASIMO

    And it’s good for humanity to be prepared well in advance, now that robots can run too. A fast, intelligent metal predator would be too much to handle for most wetware, wouldn’t it?

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    microformats logo Have you missed some event lately because the information about events is dispersed and fragmented and it’s boring to have to type things in your calendar?

    I will show you how to improve the scheduling of activities in an online calendar by automating much of this process by using Microformats.

    Microformats enable machine readability but additionally add meaning to chunks of text and other data. That means that these chunks of information also become machine ‘understandable’. In turn, this leads to automated processing of semantically useful data.

    The implications for building an Artificial Intelligence with the Semantic Web are staggering but in the meantime, I just want to tell you about a practical application of Microformats which is useful today itself, namely how to make good use of the hCalendar Microformat.

    What you should use:
    1. Firefox. You are using Mozilla’s Open-Source Firefox, aren’t you? If not download it.

    2. Operator. A Firefox extension or addon by Michael Kaply of IBM, which detects Microformats and enables you to act on them. Install it and restart Firefox and restore your session to come back here. Michael just opened up Operator’s source code. Thanks for that and for Operator Michael.

    3. Google Calendar. Get an account with Google and login.

    4. Upcoming.org. Yahoo’s event site which has support for Microformats.

    On installing Operator and relaunching Firefox, you should have a new thin toolbar. Mine shows: [Export Contact | Google Calendar | Google Maps | Flickr | Del.icio.us | Technorati]

    Now, head to upcoming.org and as search tags, type in, for instance, ‘Montreal’. This should list all events locally. It would be much more helpful if upcoming.org also provided Microformats on this list of events but currently it doesn’t.

    MTEBFast II

    Click one of these events. For this example, I chose the forthcoming Montreal Tech Entrepreneur Breakfast II launched by Ben Yoskovitz.

    GoogleCal1

    Operator detects the hCalendar Microformat content and add “(1)” next to the [Google Calendar] button among other things.

    GoogleCal 2

    Click on this button and the events information is automatically added to Google calendar’s event form. You can then save the event into your calendar.

    Voilà. You now have a way to rapidly find and integrate events within your online Calendar with nothing to type – just clicks.

    Now, it would be more interesting if people blogging about events would take the time to add Microformats to the information. One way to do this is to use the hCalendar Creator by Ryan King, based on previous work by Tantek Çelik. It also automatically add tags so that you can found similar events on eventful.com, another web service which is also using Microformats. Similarly here, Eventful does not provide the Microformat information in the list view.

    Check my past post about DemoCampMontreal1. Operator detects it immediately because that informative chunk of text was microformatted with hCalendar information by using the hCalendar creator.

    You can read more about Operator on Michael’s blog and on the Mozilla blog.


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