Masters at work

Clash of the Titans: Google vs Apple in 2010 and beyond

On 30/12/2009, In Business, Google, Linux, Masters at work, Open Source, Software, Technology, Ubuntu, Web 2.0, Web O.S., By Josh

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The next decade begins with two behemoth software (slash hardware) companies going at each other: Google and Apple. I like both of them as well as their leaders, so it will be a fantastic time to watch how it all unfolds as from early 2010.

Mobile Telecommunications

On January 5th, Google will most probably announce the availability of its own Google-branded phone, the Nexus One. Already billed as an iPhone-killer, it is going to be no small feat for Google to overtake Apple’s established dominance.

However, ‘no small feat’ does not mean that Google cannot make it. Actually, I don’t think Google is actively pursuing gaining market share from Apple in Mobile Telecommunications. In reality, Google is pursuing a vision, the efficiency and immediacy of a digital lifestyle optimized by Google Engineers. That this pits Google against Apple within the Mobile Telecommunication space is coincidental, an emergent phenomenon.

Some people are questioning that Google’s move into the handset branding will kill its own partners who manufacture handsets. I don’t think this is the case since the hardware itself is built by HTC and all the software enhancements can trickle to other manufacturers. Here, I have the distinct impression that Gartner analysts do not get open-source or the implications within Google’s own eco-system.

Although the inroads by Apple with the iPhone and the iPhone O.S.-based iPod Touch are amazing, Apple breaks Google’s services on their devices. Ever tried using Google Analytics or Google Finance on an iPhone or iPod touch? They don’t work as Apple restricts Flash.

Apple’s machines have sub-standard multi-tasking, and Apple does not like handing control or enhancements to the open-source community. Google, on the other hand, will have good multi-tasking out-of-the-box and loves open-source. To be successful in Technology and Business in this day and age, I advise that you build ‘hackability’ into your product or service. Let it be open and allow other people to build on it.

Here, my preference goes to Google although I appreciate Apple bringing such an impressive multi-touch screen and UI to the masses and I expect Google to subsidize a Telecommunication service through ads as they usually do. I just hope that the FCC and other organizations don’t block the acquisition of AdMob further.

It will hard to resist the brand appeal and a phone which reminds you simultaneously of BladeRunner and Tron.

Mobile computing – Netbooks and smartbooks

Apple has enjoyed enormous success with its laptops. The latest machines are innovative, with the multi-touch trackpad, the amazing screens and 64-bit Snow Leopard with Grand Central Dispatch (easily dispatch computing to several cores) and OpenCL (harness the GPU for computing).

With Google-branded notebooks rumoured for the end of next year, I expect the two to clash again in the mobile computing space.

It will all boil down to what value the end-user derives when on-the-go. Do you derive more value from using the Web and connecting to your social networking applications than doing hard computing?

If so, Google will eat up market share, as it will be cheaper. The rumoured specifications are superlative, with SSD being the norm as well as computing power by ARM and graphics powered by NVIDIA’s Tegra. With no moving parts and a higher throughput, Google’s machine can be faster and optimized for the Web.

It is still open whether Apple’s own tablet (an Apple announcement for the 26th of January is planned) will contain the iPhone O.S. or Snow Leopard but that device will also compete in a similar space. No doubt this will pitch Apple into the eBook industry and Google already occupies some of the space here because of their Book digitizing activities.

I love the Apple machines and Snow Leopard 64-bit, and for the moment I give them the edge, but I am open to the fact that Google could wow us all at the end of 2010.

If there is one thing that Google should do, it’s not to reinvent the wheel but rather leverage Linux for the computing intensive applications.

The Cloud

Google has optimized data centers around the world and scalable architecture, built on customized open-source GNU/Linux. Google’s cost of development of Operating System and software is minimized as it highly leverages existing Open-source code and volunteers around the world. Google has its core operating architecture optimized even down to the level of hard disk drivers.

Google optimized DNS resolution, optimized JavaScript, owns dark fiber, builds one of the fastest JavaScript browsers ever, is preparing a Chrome-based Operating System, etc…

What does Apple have?

Google unquestionably has the edge for the Cloud. And I argue that Google’s edge in Cloud computing goes beyond any other cloud computing offering in the world because it is the better engineered solution.

Videos

Google has YouTube, which reigns supreme with the user-generated content/’Broadcast Yourself’ crowd. The addition of HD videos on YouTube has increased the quality level very much. Being free because of ad-subsidization is a boon,but can also be a distraction.

Here, however, I would prefer buying HD from Apple, as my user experience would be better – I don’t get ads unless the ads are product placement inside the content, not inside the player.

Music

With iTunes, the Apple Store and such a wonderful experience finding songs, being recommended new artists, albums and songs by Genius and purchasing songs immediately downloaded, Apple has an edge.

However, Google potentially has better algorithms for recommendations for music. Apple grabbed Lala as well and is targeting music streaming from the cloud, so Apple is leading the way here.

It remains to be seen how Google manages this space.

Google vs Apple

Conclusion

All in all, 2010 and the next decade will be a fantastic time to watch these two companies and their leaders compete. To me, Google has the better algorithms and engineered products at the software engineering level while Apple has better hardware, design and user experience.

Tagged with: $GOOG • $NVDA • AAPL • Apple • ARMH • Cloud Computing • Google • Grand Central Dispatch • Music Discovery • Music Distribution • OpenCL • Video Distribution

Revisiting past Technology & Business predictions – 2009

On 30/12/2009, In AJAX, Business, Firefox, General, Google, Linux, Masters at work, Mozilla, Open Source, Ruby, Ruby on Rails, Technology, Ubuntu, Web 2.0, Web O.S., By Josh

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At the close of 2009, it is time to revisit my past predictions and see how I fared. I find that with time, my blog has become more self-referential as things I have envisioned years ago – sometimes up to 4 years ago – become validated or progress in the general direction I foretold.

1. Google Telecom, Hello! – July 2nd, 2007

Google

I envisioned then as TechCrunch had featured a rumour that Google was going to buy GrandCentral, that Google was bent on becoming a Telco or ISP themselves.

The acquisition of GrandCentral and mobile ambitions – The Google phone?

GrandCentral provides you with one phone number linked to all your existing phone numbers, and many other features (thanks to Techcrunch for this great overview) through its website and also through your mobile.

There have been rumors of the Google phone before, and such a device with the mobile Google applications, linked to all the Google integrated goodies mentioned above would be pure bliss for managing and sharing data and event information with contacts when either online or offline thanks to Google Gears.

Google’s killer move

Here is what I predict will happen with Google Telecom. Based on the current state of Telecom, i.e. VOIP disrupting the industry with the old Telcos still charging too much while there are cheaper VOIP offers like the Gizmo Project, Skype, VBuzzer and Jajah, Google will adopt a similar strategy to Google Apps. With Google Apps, Google has a tiered access: free access for users and paid access for businesses.

I believe Google Telecom will offer free calls locally and worldwide to fixed telephone lines and mobiles to individual users and basic paid access for businesses and bring a more severe disruption of the Telecom industry as it will rely on getting more advertising through these channels. Alternately, Google could use the Google Web infrastructure to position itself as an ISP and offer free Internet access to all too.

That’s a killer strategy, and they can pull it off. Beautifully at that.

2. How Apple will revolutionize music-making – March 11th, 2007

Apple

Months before the launch of the iPhone, I foresaw how the multi-touch device will change the way we make music, essentially because multi-touch is organic and enables the use of the device as Midi controllers.

However, the iPhone and the iPod Touch are a little too small for a big revolution. The forthcoming tablet will be different. Being bigger, we can expect many more practical uses like playing virtual instruments live, using the tablet as a virtual mixer and sequencer and so on.

Conclusion

The whole experience of how you make music within a sequencer with virtual instruments is about to be revolutionized by Apple with a forthcoming combination of multi-touch hardware and software based on Logic and running on at least Leopard.

The very act of recording, manipulating and producing music on a computer will become an organic performance in itself.

I don’t know when it’s coming, but I do know it’s soon, probably this year, and it’s going to be Apple and Leopard+.

The Next three ones come from a long post called The Web O.S., Web 2.0, yubnub and YashNub dated October 10th, 2005.

A revolution is under way. It is one of those times when technologies developed separately converge and congeal. From this emerges a new system that is better than the sum of its parts.

3. The Web O.S. / The Cloud – October 10th, 2005

This begs the question of how to propagate technical requirements to an underlying platform to enhance the end-user’s experience with Web 2.0.

The first point of contact is the user’s browser.
…

My view of the Web OS is that it must be a combination of the computer’s OS and the browser. …

Given Firefox and AJAX and great web services, there will be an increasing migration of desktop applications to remotely hosted locations on the web. Of course, not all applications can be hosted this way yet – desktop installed apps will still be around for a long time.

But assuming increased hosted services, it is a simple and logical step to envision that the computer OS can itself be tweaked for Web 2.0 usage. In other words, you could enhance existing Web support, but in addition, you could also strip an existing computer OS from any superfluous capabilities and code. You would then obtain a low-cost alternative to the bloated (and sometimes expensive) OSes currently available.

These WebOS 2.0 PC’s, being cheaper, could be used to power schools, especially in developing and third world countries and businesses alike.

Businesses would also benefit of broadband connections to leverage hosted services.

Although schools in poor areas may have broadband, they would still benefit of the network architecture: imagine just one server providing the necessary web services to a class of pupils. They could all be writing their assignment with a software like Writely.

The whole of the software service maintenance is outsourced – this is less costly in time and money for anyone using a PC with Web OS.

Of note recently is the announcement of the partnership between Google and Sun for cross-marketing of their services. This fuelled a lot of speculation about whether a Web version of StarOffice would be in the works. In addition, people have been talking about a possible Google browser and GoogleOS.

I envision the future Web O.S. to be a stripped down Linux distribution with subsequent enhancements. And the single distribution which is poised as the best contender has to be Mark Shuttleworth’s forever free Ubuntu Linux.

Based on the above, I don’t think Google is preparing a browser or O.S. Because both the browser (Firefox) and the Computer OS (Ubuntu Linux) already exist, it doesn’t seem to be a good strategy to me.

4. Firefox – October 20th, 2005

In December 2009, Firefox overtakes IE 7 to become the Word’s most popular browser.

Firefox

…
My weapon of choice in this area is Firefox and it should be yours too. Mozilla’s awesome open-source browser is highly customizable through a variety of extensions. A personal favourite is GreaseMonkey which allows you to install scripts that personalize the browsing experience of some sites, removing annoyances in some cases or enhancing functionality in others.

My view of the Web OS is that it must be a combination of the computer’s OS and the browser. The advantage with a browser like Firefox is that it is already cross-platform and standards-based. It is therefore a candidate of choice for basing any development of the Web 2.0 services.

I also praised Firefox in this other post in November 2005 – Firefox, the world best browser.

Not only that, but the Mozilla team, true to Open Source spirit, regularly updated the browser. More specifically, they patched any flaw very rapidly.

5. Ruby on Rails – October 10th, 2005

Twitter

Thanks to launching with Ruby on Rails, Twitter has managed to raise $25M at the end of this year.

Ruby on Rails

Ruby on Rails is a Rapid Web Development framework built using Ruby, an open-source and truly object-oriented programming language.

Ruby

I am quite fond of Matsumoto-san’s Ruby language and hence I founded a local Ruby user Group.

Ruby on Rails has made the development of new web services a disarmingly simple thing to do. The very implementation of the Rails framework enables you not to have to repeat yourself in your code. Actually, a lot of the code is automatically generated.

Thanks to David Heinemeier Hansson and thousand of other contributors, RoR is and will continue to be a driving force for evolving Web 2.0 because it’s now easy and fast to build new applications. It’s also worth mentioning that RoR now incorporates AJAX functionality by default.

6. Open-source

I have been involved in Linux User Groups and the open-source community for more than a decade and I use and recommend open-source software for that much to enterprises and individuals alike.

Open-source continues to grow as an influential way of building technology and businesses. Sometimes, the open-source product is better engineered than the commercial product, since:

Companies usually operate in an economy of resources mode and management often have no clue what development is about.

In the open-source world, “with sufficient eyeballs, all bugs are shallow”, meaning that someone, somewhere in the world is an expert in solving exactly the problem or bug that the software has and can do so in a small period of time.

Therefore, building proprietary solutions from scratch is an increasingly losing battle. It is much better to build around open-source software and open standards, ensuring interoperability and robustness.

Facebook, Twitter, WordPress, Ubuntu, Google, Apple Mac OS X are all built with or around open-source software.

By the way, Eric Raymond, the term ‘open source’ won – we rarely hear of Free Software anymore. However, let’s not forget the seminal work of Richard Stallman.

At the close of 2009, one of the most impressive companies of the decade relies heavily on Open-source software, contributes heavily to the Open-Source community and has evolved into a major player in several industries by building a hybrid business model:

Proprietary or closed-sourced core algorithms and technology + Heavily leverage open-source technology and contribute back to the community

That company is Google and is a great model for merging technology and business and succeeding in the digital age and the knowledge economy. Note that to replicate Google’s success, you also have to rely heavily on Engineers and Engineering in Computer Science.

Tagged with: $GOOG • AAPL • Apple • Business • Firefox • Google • Open Source • Ruby • Ruby on Rails • Technology

Google Nexus One & Google Telecom

On 30/12/2009, In Business, Finance, Google, Linux, Masters at work, Open Source, Technology, Trading, Web O.S., By Josh

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More details have emerged about Google’s Nexus One phone and their plans for Telecommunications.

CNET broke some news about leaked phone prices:

$530 unlocked directly from Google at http://www.google/phone

$180 subsidized with a 2-year contract from T-Mobile.

Google invited people for an Android event for January 5th, 2010, where the availability of the phone will most probably be announced early in the morning.

eWeek has an article with Bradley Horowitz, Vice President of Product Management at Google, speaking about some of Google’s vision for Telecommunication.

A Google executive said the company has only scratched the surface of what it plans to do with Google Voice, the phone management application that lets users route calls to all of their phones from one unique number.
…
Google in November acquired Gizmo5, a maker of so-called softphone software that will enable Google Voice to operate like Skype by letting users place calls via the Web from one PC to another or from a PC to a landline or mobile phone.

Bradley Horowitz, vice president of product management, declined to outline specifics for how Google is implementing Gizmo5 with Google Voice. However, Horowitz, who joined Google from Yahoo almost two years ago and oversees Gmail, Google Docs, Picasa and other Google Apps, was very enthusiastic about the move and Google Voice on the whole in a recent interview with eWEEK:

“What we’re trying to do with telephony is give people a seamless experience that frees up their telephony communication from the silos where it’s lived for the last decade. Voicemail, my contacts, all of those things have been segregated from the rest of my Web experience. We have big plans to do a better job.
Voicemail transcription, inbox integration and threaded SMS are fantastic features, but we’re really just scratching the surface. Gizmo5 gives us talent and talent technology. They have specific tech and skills in further integrating telephony with devices and desktop and Web-based computing. We want to make sure you’re communication is available to you irrespective of where you are at, what device you have in your pocket, etc.”
Horowitz said Google sees not only the future of communications funneling through the Web, but every computing service for work and play.

In addition, in an interview with Ken Auletta, who stayed 13 weeks with the Google team in Silicon Valley, wrote a new book about Google, you can hear this at around 4:18:

Why can’t we have free phone service?

In the World of Google, the Engineer is King.

This is why Google manages to be efficient and also work out inefficiencies in systems and businesses.

Auletta’s book is called “Googled – The End of the World as We know it”:

Google will charge for their phone service but it will be heavily subsidized by ads.

Tagged with: $GOOG • Deutsche Telecom • Google • Google Telecom • Nexus One • T-Mobile

The Apple tablet and other Industry disruptions signed Apple

On 25/12/2009, In Business, Finance, Masters at work, Productivity, Sequencers, Software, Technology, Trading, VST Instruments, By Josh

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The Apple tablet is said to be announced in January 2010 and I believe Apple will be shaking a few industries in one fell swoop. In this post I make a few predictions about the tablet as well as analyze what Apple does well and what they should do.

Update: the LA Times has an article on how the stock performed:

Apple stock soars to all-time high

Amid speculation about a forthcoming tablet computer, the company’s shares have risen 145% this year.

Apple tablet characteristics

It’s going to be a general-purpose multi-tasking computer
I think the Apple tablet also support gesture-recognition through the webcam from a distance. You’ll be able to flip pages through just a gesture at a distance, without touching the tablet. There will be other gestures supported
There could be some switchable voice recognition and command functions on it too.

Industries which will be shaken up or disrupted by Apple’s tablet

The Music-making industry

For the argumentation, see my post in 2007 on how Apple will revolutionize music-making which I wrote before the release of the iPhone.

The whole experience of how you make music within a sequencer with virtual instruments is about to be revolutionized by Apple with a forthcoming combination of multi-touch hardware and software based on Logic and running on at least Leopard. The very act of recording, manipulating and producing music on a computer will become an organic performance in itself.

And here is what some people have been doing in the meantime, demonstrated by Jordan Rudess of Dream Theater:

One thing Apple needs to do here is make the software detect how much pressure or indirectly, pseudo-pressure.

2. The traditional publishing industry

Single purpose devices like the Nook, the Kindle will disappear, and people will rather use a fuller computing device like the Apple tablet to read the press, mostly on the web or in other digital formats like Flash and PDF.

Apple has pitched the publishing industry to move their content online and through their distribution channel so they can be accessed and read on the tablet.

The split is advantageous to publishers as compared to the amazon Kindle terms, with Apple taking 30% whereas Amazon takes 30% if it is exclusive, and 50% if not.

3. The Cable/Television industry

TechCrunch has a good article on it.

Apple’s strengths here will be:

the very high-resolution screen and general great screen quality
the excellent movie distribution channel and store through the Apple Store/iTunes combination, but that would necessitate wireless access for it to work anywhere

4. The Mobile computing industry

It remains to be seen how good a tablet is for computing on the go, as posture and ergonomics will be different form having a laptop with a keyboard and a separate screen. But the tablet will still be a fantastic portable computing device.

I am still wondering whether the device will be iPhone O.S. based or built with Snow Leopard. The latter appears primed for use on a tablet, with an adjustable on-screen keyboard. As the more powerful O.S., Apple would do well to use Snow Leopard in the tablet.

If the tablet uses the iPhone O.S., Apple would win points for making it multi-task out-of-the-box. In addition, Apple would leverage the existing Apple App Store infrastructure.

What Apple has and has done well

The Apple Store
iTunes
The distribution through the Apple Store, the App Store and iTunes
The Design of it all, making the user experience beautiful
Genius recommendations for music – this can easily be transposed for Movies and Books
Acquisition of Lala, so that content can be streamed easily from the cloud

What Apple has going against it

Does not play well with more readily available formats and codecs, including open-source ones
DRM, with machine authorizations

Machines get obsolete or die and have to be replaced, so why should you be limited to 5 machines where the content you paid for is stored and not be able to easily get all the content you purchased in a new machine? What if my old machines all died?

Does not allow sending gifts from one country to another user

The next decade will pitch Apple against Google on some fronts.

Tagged with: AAPL • Apple • Apple Tablet • gesture recognition • Industry disruption • Multi-touch • Tablet

20 must-read Finance, Investment & Trading books

On 24/12/2009, In Business, Finance, Hedge Funds, Investments, Masters at work, Personal Finance, Quantitative Analysis, Trading, By Josh

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These are some of the best Finance, Investment and Trading books in my library.

Useful for a last-minute gift for yourself or your loved ones.

Merry Christmas!

1. Lords of Finance – Liaquat Ahamed

Liaquat Ahamed won the Financial Times and Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year Award 2009 for it but it’s about the Great Depression and the Crash of 1929.

2. One Up On Wall Street – Peter Lynch

How to spot the next ten-bagger.

3. Inside the House of Money – Steven Drobny

Macro-thinking. Interviews with top Hedge Fund Managers.

4. The Warren Buffet Way – Hagstrom, Fisher, Miller

Essentials of Value investing according to Buffett, with nods to Fisher & Graham.

5. The Greatest Trade Ever – Gregory Zuckerman

How John Paulson cemented his place as one of the greatest traders/hedge fund managers ever.

6. Trend Following – Michael Covel

All types of Trend-following information, including from the cryptic but highly successful Ed Seykota.

7. Way of the Turtle – Curtis Faith

Are traders born or bred? This question led to an experiment which is documented here. Hugely interesting.

8. Trade your way to financial freedom – Van Tharp

Describes criteria for a complete trading plan. Also speaks about Psychology.

9. Come into my trading room – Dr. Alexander Elder

Complete trading plan, with examples.

10. Trading for a living – Alexander Elder

11. Reminiscences of a stock operator – Edwin Lefèvre

Life of the legendary Jesse Livermore.

12. How I made $2,000,000 in the stock market – Nicolas Darvas

How Darvas, a dancer, approached the stock market from scratch and evolved a mix of fundamental and technical perspectives. Highly entertaining and educational.

13. Quantitative Trading – Ernie Chan

14. Generate Thousands in Cash on your Stocks Before Buying or Selling Them – Samir Elias

15. The Lazy Investor – Derek Foster

For the long, value and dividend approach with compounding. For investors, not traders.

16. An American Hedge-Fund – Timothy Sykes

How Tim made a fortune out of his bar mitzvah money, $12,500 and then proceeded to lose all of it. More importantly, how Tim dusted himself up again to do it one more time starting with the exact same amount of money. This time, however, he’s doing it in the open, documenting winning and losing trades through Covestor. He rules the penny stocks space. Follow him on his blog, on Covestor, on Twitter, Facebook, Livestream, etc… – he’s everywhere.

17. Investing The Templeton Way – Lauren Templeton, Scott Phillips

18. Market Wizards – Jack Schwager

19. Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets – John Murphy

20. Japanese Candlestick Charting Patterns – Steve Nison

Tagged with: Alpha • Dividend • Finance • Hedge Funds • Investment • Quantitative Analysis • Trading • Value

Two IPOs to look forward to in 2010.

On 24/12/2009, In Algorithmic Trading, Business, Finance, Masters at work, Technology, By Josh

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Paul Kedrosky of InfectiousGreed wrote a very revealing guest article on TechCrunch about strange rounds of financing into non public companies, mentioning Twitter & Yelp.

This got me thinking about which IPO I would look forward to myself and what the characteristics of the company would be, including the state of its technology.

What I am looking for is

1. Not just a technology or feature, but something which matured into a platform

2. Something which is near ubiquitous at the turn of 2009 on the web or in the circle of geeks and people living on the edge, the innovators and early adopters who try things or grasp things early, the visionaries.

3. Something which already has significant inroads in the platform space with high-profile or low profile companies or associations using their service or building upon them.

4. Something which can already be useful in:

Customer Relationship for enterprises
Targeted Marketing or targeted advertising for enterprises or startups
Behavioral Analytics, or just Analytics
The Finance industry – Automated & Algorithmic trading

Today, Erick Schonfeld followed through with an article on the Top 10 IPO Candidates for 2010, but strangely omits Twitter, which Kedrosky mentioned.

As I wrote in this post about Twitter raising 35M USD from Google and Microsoft, Twitter has become a platform and checks all four points on the checklist above.

If they are not acquired, the two Technology companies whose IPOs I am looking forward to are:

Facebook

and

Twitter

For a contrarian view on none other than Forbes, read The Death of the IPO by Quentin Hardy.

I think many people underestimate the value of Twitter.

If Twitter has an IPO, would you buy it?

Tagged with: Advertising • Algorithmic Trading • analytics • automated trading • Facebook • Finance • IPO • Marketing • Targeted • Twitter

Twitter profitable after Google and Microsoft deals – it’s a win for Ruby on Rails

On 22/12/2009, In AI, Algorithmic Trading, Finance, Hedge Funds, Investments, Masters at work, Open Source, Quantitative Analysis, Ruby, Ruby on Rails, Technology, By Josh

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Bloomberg reported that Twitter inked two deals for a total of 25M USD with Google and Microsoft so that tweets can be inserted in their search results page.

This shows how essential real-time has become on the Web.

For me it’s a big win for the underlying open source technology framework for Rapid Web Development, Ruby on Rails, which I have been recommending to enterprises since about 4 years ago.

Where are you on the Technology Adoption Lifecycle below regarding Ruby and Ruby on Rails? Have you innovated? Are you an early adopter because you understand the business implications, or will you be at the other end of the spectrum, a laggard?

Technology Adoption Lifecycle

The news is, however, huge for Twitter, which is said by Bloomberg to be profitable now.

Twitter has become a platform essential to the Web in Marketing/Advertising, Customer Care (though less as people understand this less) but also in Finance. Witness Howard Linzon’s StockTwits, itself leveraged by NASDAQ’s Portfolio Manager application for the iPhone.

It’s huge news because the real-time web can be input signals into high-frequency trading strategies.

If Twitter does an IPO, I won’t miss it.

Tagged with: High-Frequency Trading • Howard Linzon • IPO • NASDAQ • StockTwits • Trading Strategy • Twitter

Google Nexus One – the story so far.

On 20/12/2009, In Business, Google, Linux, Masters at work, Open Source, Technology, By Josh

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The essential information culled from around the net:

From Reuters:

Will be sold online as early as January 5th 2010
Cellular service will have to be bought separately
Analysts say the aim is to gain access to valuable consumer data that can be used to sell ads at premium prices, rather than to make money from direct hardware sales, as companies such as Nokia or Research in Motion do.
Handset subsidized through T-Mobile contract
“In the long term Google will become a seller and get commission from operators”

From Android Guys: Specifications

From These are the Droids, more precise specifications garnered from library references in the Nexus One ROM. The double-microphone with noise-cancellation also suggest to me the implementation of video-conferencing.

Proximity Sensor/Light Sensor: Capella CM3602
Accelerometer: BMA150 3-axis Accelerometer
Magnetic Compass: AK8973 3-axis Magnetic field sensor/AK8973 Orientation sensor
Wifi Radio / Bluetooth / FM: BCM4329
Routing audio to Speakerphone with back mic
Stereo FM speaker
Audience A1026 Noise Canceling Chip
Qualcomm QSD8K Specific hardware (QSD8250 Probably)
Adreno 200 Graphics Core with OpenGLES 2.0
Camera: auto focus, flash, white balance and anti-banding

From Techtorial:

4Gig MicroSD card installed
Battery capacity is 1400 mAh
The trackball can be used to focus

Top 9 reasons why the Google Nexus One Phone beats Apple’s iPhone

On 20/12/2009, In AI, Business, Google, Linux, Masters at work, Open Source, Technology, Trading, By Josh

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1. Apple blocks Flash on the iPhone and iPod touch

2. Google is open to open-source contributions.

The Google Nexus One uses the Linux kernel. Google supports Open Standards and the Nexus One will too.

Apple blocks open-source efforts. I have to wait and re-jailbreak my device every time the O.S. is updated making me lose precious time and it’s just a hassle. Apple prevents me from using one of the most useful third-party provided application that existed, which is to have the whole of Wikipedia – the sum of human knowledge – accessible offline in my hand.

Google, on the other hand, has open-sourced Android. Linux is open-source.

3. Google-subsidized Telecom

Traditional Telcos in Northern America are greedy companies who don’t listen to their customers. I want Google to undermine them by subsidizing my Telecommunications through mobile ads and use of their services.

Why do I think this will happen? The answer is here in three parts:
3.1. The essence of Google’s success (2007)
This explains how Google relies on ads to subsidize many of their technologies, but also:

“massive revenues from contextualized highly-targeted ads”
“all problem solving is some kind of search”
“optimized architecture”

3.2. Google Telecom, Hello! (2007)

Number 1 Internet brand name => a Google-branded device is highly valuable.
Massive purchase of Dark Fiber
Dispatching of large number of Google Data Centers around the US, each built on highly optimized hardware and software
Google Talk integration into GMail
GrandCentral Acquisition -> Google Voice now
” I believe Google Telecom will offer free calls locally and worldwide to fixed telephone lines and mobiles to individual users and basic paid access for businesses and bring a more severe disruption of the Telecom industry as it will rely on getting more advertising through these channels.”

3.3. See “Google ad-subsidized Telecom“, my video about at the Deloitte Canada TMT Predictions 2010 and vote for me (you can vote once per day) (2009).

Admob Acquisition
Gizmo 5 acquisition
Tinkering with free Wi-fi in 47 airports
Google branded phone
Disruptive behavior

4. Feats of Engineering

Google values Engineering and Engineers. This is why they have scalable and robust technological architecture.

5. Google Nexus One is a General Purpose Computing device & has Multi-tasking out-of-the-box

The Google Nexus One phone will be a General Purpose Mobile computing device. The Apple iPhone isn’t or you need to jailbreak and get two separate apps like BackGrounder and MultiFl0w to enable these. Besides, it’s more fun to compute:

6. Google services Integration

I use so many Google services and apps that it’s unmentionable. I was an early adopter of Google search and I also have a Google Voice account.

7. The Google Nexus One is incredibly fast

The Google Nexus One has an optimized Android 2.1 O.S. as well as the Qualcomm 1 GHz Snapdragon CPU/Platform, itself architected around an ARM chip.

8. The Nexus One is beautiful

Check out the screenshots at Engadget.

9. And lastly, the Google Nexus One will also make phone calls. The iPhone drops them:

Dear Google, I want my own Google Nexus One.

Thank you.

Tagged with: $GOOG • $QCOM • AAPL • Apple iPhone • Google • Nexus One

Why the Google Phone matters & Deloitte’s TMT Predictions 2010. #myTMT

On 16/12/2009, In AI, Business, Google, Investments, Linux, Masters at work, Open Source, Software, Technology, Web O.S., By Josh

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This past week-end was abuzz with the internal release to employees of the Google Phone, Nexus One. Although manufactured by HTC, it is going to be branded Google.

For me, the implications are staggering as Google subsidizes many of its applications because 95%+ (some say 99%) of its revenues come from highly-targeted advertising and it’s one more step in a full-blown Mobile Telecom service offering from Google.

I was therefore divided between either writing a new blog post about analysis and the significance of it or making the gist of the argument for a short presentation so as to participate and stimulate the Deloitte Canada MyTMT Predictions 2010. I ended up doing the latter.

You can find my TMT prediction for 2010 and vote for it once per day on the Deloitte/Wildfire Facebook application here: “Google ad-subsidized Telecom”

Katheline Jean-Pierre (Web Marketing Strategist at Deloitte Canada) and Laurent Maisonnave (Social Media and Web Video Marketing specialist, as well as President of “Île-Sans-Fil” which provides free wireless in Montreal) both mention my entries on their respective blogs (the content is in French).

I couldn’t find any extensive analysis on the web during this week-end, except this one on the Forrester Blog for Consumer Product Strategy Professionals by Charles S. Golvin. Golvin asks a good question about the financing as most handsets are sold lower because of the accompanying plan:

Will the phone be sold at full retail price, or will it be subsidized?

However, my own interest is in:

In other words, that the significance of the Google Nexus One phone goes beyond the release of a phone, unlocked, directly to the end customer, “upending the carrier model”.

The value lies in what is beyond:

Massive Disruption of the Telecom Industry.

As opposed to Golvin, I have no doubt there will be some form of subsidy for the Telco service – they’re doing it right now with Google Voice with rates lower than Skype. I do believe that Golvin’s scenario about subsidizing the handset is plausible too as they need to position it firmly against the iPhone. Actually, I wrote about Google’s strategy for Telecom before in 2007 in “Google Telecom, Hello” here on YashLabs.

Also, an earlier analysis of Google as a company and why I like them is here: “The essence of Google’s success”. In this analysis, also from 2007, is why I believe that some form of subsidization by ads is inevitable – it is Google’s lifeblood as a business.

Even the Crown Jewel in Google’s Technology Portfolio, PageRank, is offered to the masses for free when you are searching thanks to ads.

“They forget the massive revenues from contextualized highly-targeted ads and they don’t understand that all problem-solving is some type of search.”

I LOVE that line!!!

Best

Hugh (Hugh McLeod of Gaping Void)

What are your TMT predictions for 2010? Participate in the contest. Looking forward to seeing your take.

Investing vs Trading & Trend-following.

On 2/12/2009, In Algorithmic Trading, Finance, Hedge Funds, Investments, Masters at work, Personal Finance, Trading, By Yash

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Trading horizon

I nearly covered a shorting position with a limit today but cancelled it. The day was good and my portfolio is up 53.7%. One of the short positions is now top on the list in terms of dollar gain, though not percentage gain.

Shorting and trading, by their very nature are shorter-term positions as compared to investments. It is quite difficult to be able to hold on to a shorting position for a few days. For some traders it can be a nerve-wracking experience, especially if the threat of a short squeeze looms, where the potential for losses is unlimited. Therefore, level-headedness is of the essence.

The trade must be well-researched, and requisites for a good trade must be fulfilled: entry, exit, % of bankroll risked, stops or limits.

I believe you should forget about a short trade which was profitable when covered in the following sense: “You should have no regret about any other action which could have brought more profits.”

This said, it is important to have a trading journal where trades can be stored and analyzed.

Value Investing

Buy-and-hold and regular investing with DRIP can bring some peace of mind to the Trader/Investor, but in some market conditions it can be much more nerve-wracking than holding on a short.

Consider Buffett seeing his portfolio literally melt by $25 billion during the global economic crisis and still keeping at it. There is simply no way that he could not be affected by this stupendous loss unless he really doesn’t look at his portfolio at all.

In addition, it was possible as I showed in this blog to call the massive losses in the market months before October 2008. With such a large exposure to market and systemic risk, one could have cashed in, or done like Paulson and make the Greatest Trade Ever – as it is, the title of a new book by Gregory Zuckerman:

Trend-following

My thoughts on trend-following are related to the amplification effect of people using this strategy. Moreover, these strategies can also be set and triggered in an automated way.

With the tendency to go more towards automation, thus removing the deleterious effects of human emotions on trading, I can only foresee that similar strategies and systems will cause charts to spike one way or the other, with the amplitudes getting higher with time.

It would be interesting to model these changes, and build meta-strategies to profit from these trends.

A book I recommend on Trend Following is the one by Michael Covel:

Tagged with: Gregory Zuckerman • Investing • Michael Covel • Shorting • Trading • Warren Buffett

Masters at Work – Imogen Heap – Just for now (live)

On 9/6/2007, In Masters at work, Music, Technology, By Yash

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Imogen Heap, the Frou Frou former singer, as a one-woman band. Incredible voice and performance with the help of samplers, sequencers and effect processors. The song and lyrics are amazing.

Imogen Heap Myspace artist page.

Imogen Heap live on KRCW’s Morning Becomes Eclectic show with Nic Harcourt

Master at work – Craig Armstrong

On 8/4/2007, In Masters at work, Music, By Yash

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Born in Glasgow, Scotland, Craig Armstrong is one of the finest composers today. He has both a classical and electronic music academic background. His albums are fantastic as are his film scores. He won a Golden Globe for Best Original Score and a BAFTA for Best Film Music for his phenomenal work on Moulin Rouge!

Craig Armstrong appeared on the video-taped KCRW radio show Morning Becomes Eclectic. Watch the video here.

Recommended album: As If To Nothing
Recommended music: Finding Beauty, Snow, Wake Up in New York, Ruthless Gravity, Let It Be Love, This Love, Balcony Scene (Romeo + Juliet)

His ideal is that, one day, “all the influences that go into my work come together. I’m looking for that moment when everything blends together as if it’s one mathematical equation, where everything hits the same point.”

I see music as a positive force in life.

I cling on to the beauty of music, because life can be very difficult. And so for me the purpose of music is that it is an uplifting thing. It comes from the spiritual side of people.

You may be down, and when you listen to a certain piece of music you look at the world as a better place again. I’m into that.

It doesn’t have to be pretty music, but I do like music that leaves some hope after you’ve listened to it. That’s the music I like to write.

The music on my album is a bit melancholic, but I think it’s a positive thing, rather than a negative thing. It’s certainly music for adults. Young kids won’t like it. I think it’s spiritual music, to do with real life.

For me the great thing about music is that it’s infinite. You can keep on learning and learning and learning.

Mastery of an unconventional musical instrument

On 15/3/2007, In Hardware, Masters at work, Music, Technology, By Yash

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We have some more conventional musical instruments. Find great prices on electric guitars, as well as bass guitars and drums at SamedayMusic.com.

It’s called the Hang, and it is a metallic container which makes clangorous but harmonious tones. The musician is masterful in his playing. The music goes well with today’s rain I think.

YashLabs

Finance, Technology and the pursuit of Alpha Beauty

Revisiting past Technology & Business predictions – 2009

Google Nexus One & Google Telecom

The Apple tablet and other Industry disruptions signed Apple

20 must-read Finance, Investment & Trading books

Two IPOs to look forward to in 2010.

Twitter profitable after Google and Microsoft deals – it’s a win for Ruby on Rails

Google Nexus One – the story so far.

Top 9 reasons why the Google Nexus One Phone beats Apple’s iPhone

Why the Google Phone matters & Deloitte’s TMT Predictions 2010. #myTMT

Investing vs Trading & Trend-following.

Masters at Work – Imogen Heap – Just for now (live)

Master at work – Craig Armstrong

Mastery of an unconventional musical instrument

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