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Google announced their acquisition of Danny Hillis’s Metaweb, owners of Freebase which allows people to store data as entities, together with relationships.

This is a big step in the rise of Web 3.0, also known as the Semantic Web, which will allow machines to compute using human understanding or human knowledge to a certain extent. Google was already overtaken by the awesome WolframAlpha knowledge computation engine and had to close the gap.

Google writes that their acquisition will be used to enhance search for tougher questions which a search on pure keywords is lacking. That kind of search, to quote Google’s example of “colleges on the west coast with tuition under $30,000″, necessitates additional capabilities. These include the entity being queried, its type, its relationships with other entities, and so on.

Although the initial use will be to enhance search, right after this comes the automation of human understanding. With logical predicates, one will be able to construct a body of knowledge and infer deeper meaning from information available on the web.

For instance, “Google acquires Metaweb” can be broken down into the semantic relationships below (like Thomson-ReutersOpenCalais already does):

Acquirer: Google

Acquired: Metaweb

Relationship: Acquisition

Status: Confirmed.

Within the trading context, such a news headline could be used to automate Merger Arbitrage orders (Provided, of course that Metaweb was publicly traded).

Hence, to some extent at this point, computers will be able to ‘understand’ and interpret the meaning of human language and this information, in turn, could be used for further automation.

But beyond this step, with machine learning, comes the promise of an even wilder web, a web with sufficiently advanced understanding of human language, knowledge and mind, that it is indistinguishable from a sentient form.

Watch this video from Freebase to understand why entities are important:

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Tux, as originally drawn by Larry Ewing
Image via Wikipedia


Foreword

This is a text I wrote in 2003, seven years ago, and I thought it important to repeat it here to see how many inroads Open-Source software has made in our lives, in the Enterprise and in Governments. I consider this foundational knowledge (you must also read all the linked information, especially the Microsoft Halloween Documents) and these are things I spent years in a LUG explaining to people interested in open source software. Many discussions revolved around the licenses as far as I can remember. A follow-up post will surely be in order to showcase and analyze how far we have come in just seven years and how pervasive open source is on the Web, in the Enterprise, in Governments worldwide, and generally, in our lives.

1. Introduction

This text introduces the history of GNU/Linux, Free and Open Source Software as well as their advantages in a succinct manner. Strictly speaking, it would be more precise to begin chronologically with GNU and Richard Stallman. However, I have preferred to mention what is more familiar before moving onto less known territory so as to enable the reader to connect the dots himself/herself more easily.

2. Linus Torvalds and Linux

Linux is an Operating System compatible with the Posix standard. Linux is an O.S. that is very secure, very fast, very robust, and above all, it is free and its source code is freely available.

Linux was initially an Operating System kernel, designed and developed originally solely by a young Finnish student, Linus Torvalds. In 1991, then aged 21, and in his second year of Information Systems studies at the University of Helsinki, Linus Torvalds began developing the Linux kernel. He started off on his own and on an affordable machine with an Intel 386 processor. Later on, however, he decided to make the kernel, as well as its source code, accessible to other people freely by putting them on FTP sites.

The reasons that motivated Torvalds to develop Linux were:

  • The high cost of the hardware and software necessary at the time to run a UNIX environment
  • The inadequate features and the slow reaction to positive feedback for the MINIX Operating system built by University Professor, Andrew Tanenbaum. MINIX was mostly used within academic circles.
  • The great delays suffered by the project of development of an Operating System for GNU, launched nearly 9 years before by Richard Stallman.

The free availability of the source code to the public had the result that a growing number of people were offering either feedback in the form of verbal descriptions or in the form of enhanced code to Linus. Ever since, the Linux system has always been continuously improved this way by the collaborative work of many people throughout the world. These collaborators usually work voluntarily, often during their spare time, and many do so for free.

More than ten years later, in our days, Linux is a system which is widely used in all fields where these characteristics are needed: dependability, security, robustness, speed, an economical approach, together with the possibility of customising the source code.

Linux can be found within commercial companies like Boeing, Government infrastructures, the Educational sector, and that of Research. N.A.S.A. also uses Linux.

Numerous enterprises have migrated their operations and their software to Linux for its strengths like robustness, security, and its positive economic impact on the bottom line. Many CGI effects in recent Hollywood blockbusters have been produced by software running on Linux. IBM is a great supporter of Linux. Oracle, PeopleSoft and SAP have all started migrating their product lines onto Linux.

Links:

3. Richard Stallman, GNU and the FSF

A particular license governs the use of the Linux source code, the GPL. The acronym stands for the GNU Public Licence, which stipulates, among other terms, that whoever modifies the source code has the duty of injecting the new source code back into the user community.

GNU is a project that existed prior to the advent of Linux, and launched by Richard Stallman. Stallman was a Harvard student who also worked for a long time in the MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, the AI Lab. Within the AI Lab environment, there already existed a culture of source code sharing, so that all employees could bring their individual enhancements to benefit the community. These collaborations, together with the approach of code sharing, solved numerous problems with the hardware and the software at the time. In 1983-1984, Richard Stallman built this approach into a project, which became his life project, and in a way his masterpiece. The idea of GNU is to produce and promote a combination of Operating System and Free Software compatible with UNIX, for free if possible, or for a nominal fee to all those who would need such a system.

Within the GNU sphere, the notion of ‘Free’ as in ‘Free Software’ describes the following characteristics for the user, who can:

  • Use it freely,
  • Give it to somebody else freely,
  • Modify it freely,
  • Sell it if he/she wants,
  • Use part of it in another work, even in a commercial one (provided the license allows this)

Richard Stallman went on to found the Free Software Foundation, the FSF, specifically to promote the notions of freedom associated to Free Software. From his own individual effort, and later through the contribution of hundreds of other persons throughout the world, the GNU Project grew into a myriad of freely available software for the masses. For instance, GNU Emacs, the customisable multi-editor, and GCC, the set of GNU compilers, are software initially designed and coded by Richard Stallman, but to which others have contributed afterwards.

However, the Operating System planned by Richard Stallman, the GNU Hurd, remained in development for very long, which rendered his overarching project incomplete. Indeed, even though GNU software were becoming more numerous and freely available, one still needed the costly UNIX environments to use them while Stallman wanted to democratise access to both an Operating System and applications.

Links:

4. GNU/Linux, Internet collaborations and other synergies.

Therefore, it is thanks to the fusion of the concepts and applications of the GNU Project to the Linux Operating System that Richard Stallman’s dream could materialise. In fact, Stallman insists rightly, that what is commonly called a Linux distribution, should be more correctly named a GNU/Linux system.

A Linux distribution is in reality, a collection of GNU Software with the Linux Operating System, generally regrouped and distributed freely (FTP, CDROMS) or commercially (often in a box with CDROMS and printed manuals) by teams or by companies like Red Hat, SuSe, Mandrake, etc…

The advent of Linux also strongly benefited from the possibilities of distant collaboration offered by the pre-Web Internet core during the 1983-1995 period (e.g. mailing lists, Usenet, FTP, etc…). More recently, the development of open source projects has also relied on web-enabled collaborative frameworks like Sourceforge and Discussion Forums.

5. Eric Raymond and ‘Open Source’ Software.

Eric Raymond is one of the collaborators to the GNU project. Actually, he developed the SendMail software. In addition, he is a fine observer of the collaborative development process that is specific to the GNU/Linux, Free and Open Source Software realm.

In his many texts available online, among which “The Cathedral and The Bazaar”, he describes his view of why Open Source succeed where others fail. In his opinion, the approach of code sharing and open collaboration has enabled the development of the complex ensemble GNU/Linux. This is to be contrasted with many commercial companies that have whole development teams which falter over the rising complexity of software systems.

In other words, Eric Raymond believes that what explains the greater dependability, security and robustness of the software developed with this particular collaborative approach, is precisely the open collaborative development model with the freely available source code. According to him, this is partly explained because there is a growing number of collaborators. Hence, any bug will most probably be trivial and easily solvable to at least one or some of the collaborators. And within traditional software development in commercial endeavours, while the development times can be estimated, the time taken for the discovery and elimination of bugs often remains unknown.

In reality, there are examples whereby some bugs linked to security were eliminated within a one-day period, thanks to one or more collaborators via the Internet. This great reactivity is to be contrasted with a commercial company who will first deny the existence of the bug, and later take a timeframe of about two weeks to solve the problem. In the meantime, the system user finds himself stuck with a vulnerable environment.

In 1998, Netscape announced that the source code of its web browser would be made available freely. Raymond interprets this as the first example of consideration – by a commercial company – of the superiority of the Open Source Development and code-sharing model (as promoted by Stallman, Torvalds and the other numerous collaborators of the GNU/Linux environment).

Furthermore, he realised that it became necessary to better formalise and express the Open Source concepts because he extrapolated that in the future, there would be more close collaborations between commercial companies and the mostly altruistic and non-business oriented collaborators of the GNU/Linux project. He therefore decided to adopt the terms “Open Source”, rather than the “Free Software” championed by Richard Stallman. Apart from certain fine print details, globally, these terms can be interchanged without any problem in many cases. However, it seems the term “Open Source” is more common these days than “Free Software”.

Eric Raymond, therefore, launched “The Open Source Initiative“, an organisation which describes and promotes the advantages of Open Source Software.

Links:

6. GNU/Linux in Mauritius

GNU/Linux is present in Mauritius in various sectors. However, it is probable that GNU/Linux is subject to a weak visibility. It is with the perspective of making people more cognisant with these subjects: the Linux Operating System, the GNU applications, Free Software and Open Source that this text has been written.

The advantages for various sectors of the country, or for specific and strategic projects are numerous. Let’s take the Cybercity initiative as an example: all GNU/Linux products are strongly based on Open Protocols and Open Standards that are at the heart of Internet communication. Better still, studies have shown that some of the implementations of standard protocols and in the GNU/Linux products are the best in the world (e.g. the TCP stack).

This means that GNU/Linux adoption better prepares the country’s integration into the new world-scale economy, of which a great component is e-commerce via Internet, by going through an optimised economic investment. This, especially at a time when commercial companies are known for their monopolistic practices, their goals being to continually raise their software product prices, or lock-in the users within either exploitative licences or non-standard/closed protocols.

It is especially important to do a proper evaluation for specific and strategic projects within the Government because costs are often transmitted onto the citizens. Governments of various foreign countries have either decided to make strong evaluations of the GNU/Linux alternatives or decided to adopt them altogether within their projects or within their infrastructure. Countries which have considered GNU/Linux or are using Open Source software are: Brazil, Peru, France, Germany, USA, China, South Africa, England, Vietnam, India, and others.

If you are within the Government, the Private Sector, the field of Education, or a home user, for more information about GNU/Linux, Free Software and Open Source Software, it is highly advised to regularly visit the MLUG web site (see below).

The local GNU/Linux landscape consists, among others, of:

1. The Mauritius Linux User Group (also known as Linux User Group of Mauritius), for which this text was created.

One can visit the website or subscribe to the mailing list at M.L.U.G.

2. Linux User Group of the University of Mauritius

3. IBL, representing the company Red Hat which sells a well-known GNU/Linux distribution, and partner of IBM, a huge promoter and vendor of Linux products

4. Tuxcafé, a cybercafe entirely built with machines running GNU/Linux

5. Mauritians Using Linux Group or M.U.L.G.

Links:

More resources on Linux in Government:

Linux and Microsoft:

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Google + Apple = Gapple
Image by ~C4Chaos via Flickr

Following the Google I/O developer conference, it is good to make an update on Google’s sprawling offerings and business explorations and conclude as to what their strategy long-term is, which I do at the end of this post.

Google’s AdMob acquisition goes through

Last Friday, the FTC actually allowed the deal to go through and Omar Hamoui’s AdMob is now part of the Google stable. Apple’s foray into mobile advertising with Quattro Wireless must have helped the FTC make its decision.

I expect an additional lucrative revenue stream from Mobile Adverts for Google, as mobiles (smart phones, tablets) take over.

Google TV

At Google IO, during the Day 2 Keynote, Eric Schmidt unveiled Google TV. What I grasp from the keynote presentation and Google’s partners is that they will heavily back Adobe, especially Flash.

In fact, Vic Gundotra did send a jab toward Apple, using the latter’s own past words “It is a future we don’t want”, referring to access being controlled by one man, one company, one platform, just as Apple jabbed IBM in 1984 at the launch of the Mackintosh.

Google TV’s partners

On stage with Schmidt, featured Google’s partners:

  • Intel
  • Sony
  • Adobe
  • Logitech
  • Dish Networks

Augmented TV

What Google envisions is a social way of watching TV, or a melding of the web and television platforms. In this respect, it is ‘Augmented Television’.

Google’s strides with online video

The following events are very significant in my opinion, in semantics and timing, especially when taken in light of Apple’s own projects:

  • Google open-sources the VP8 codec
  • They open-sourced the VP8 codec which they obtained following the acquisition of On2. They are giving it away as a new format called WebM, which is in fact a version of the Matroska container, and which supports Ogg Vorbis Audio. Ogg Vorbis is open-source.

  • Google funds the Ogg Theora optimization on ARM platform
  • Google decided to finance the optimization of the open-source video codec for the ARM platform. This can mean only one or two things:
    - It’s about mobile video, as ARM has the best platform for mobiles & tablets computing, platform heavily relied upon by many licensees like Qualcomm, NVIDIA, Texas Instruments, Marvell, and several others.

  • Google acquires Global IP Solutions
  • This acquisition appears to me to be more about the actual Intellectual Property than the technology itself, but it does give Google access to interesting things, including, but not limited to:

    - Web-based, real-time, high-quality audio and video streaming
    - Web-based audio-conferencing and video-conferencing

  • Google acquires Episodic
  • This gives Google access to marketing data, but also a monetization platform for videos as well as great user experience experience (yes, you read that well).

  • Google acquires BumpTop
  • You may think that this is not related to online video, but in reality it is, albeit in an indirect way.

    As I mentioned in my post in 2007, BumpTop was more suited to touch-screens. This acquisition, therefore, can only mean that Google is making a big push for their tablet computing platforms, since BumpTop as is needs a bigger screen than that of smartphones and is not suited to the Desktop and mouse.

    Add this fact to the race of online video/video-conferencing acquisitions that Google is running and you can see that the Tablet platform, running Android or Chrome O.S. should ideally support video-conferencing, something that Apple forgot to include built-in in the iPad.

Google makes Core APIs accessible – Google Prediction API

Machine Learning, to me, is one of Google’s core strengths. It is therefore amazing to see them open up access to its Google Prediction API. Some critics will say that it’s a black box because you can’t choose the internal algorithm. I say that it is rather a blessing, because startups will be able to leverage Google’s algorithms and infrastructure to build their own technology for free or nearly free (some costs will apply when using Google Storage, which is necessary):

Google Prediction API

Another API Google offers is Google Latitude API, which will help with all those location-based services.

Conclusion on Google’s Strategy

  • It’s obvious that Google is focusing on mobile connectivity, ‘mobile’ here, being smart phones and tablet computers as well as probable laptops which will run Android or Chrome O.S.

    The new mobile tablets should feature video-conferencing heavily.

  • The fact that audio-conferencing technologies has also been acquired shows that Google may ramp up their VOIP services into full-fledged Business Telephony services. Look for Google Voice & Google talk integration with new audio and video-conferencing solutions going forward.
  • Google is removing risk in their online video offerings by funding the Ogg Theora video optimization and open-sourcing the VP8 codec.

    The risks are:

    1. The need to pay license fees for the H.264 codec favoured by Apple, which would impact their bottom line. Currently, they do support this codec, but they will, in the future, have the possibility of switching to their own. Open-Source, long-term is the better strategy.

    2. The possibility that Adobe’s Flash does not advance as well as Adobe has promised

  • The Core APIs opening means that Google is also poising as an alternate cloud platform for online startups to launch and scale easily. In this space, Google is trading on Amazon’s EC2 and S3 platforms, especially with Google App Engine too.
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    Apple Inc.
    Image via Wikipedia

    Total war continues to brew between these two behemoths this year as I predicted in ‘Clash of the Titans – Apple vs Google in 2010 and beyond‘ at the close of 2009.

    On January 5th, just as Google stepped onto Apple’s Smartphone & Telecommunication turf by launching the Google Nexus One, Apple retaliated by acquiring Quattro Wireless, a small mobile ad company. Actually, Apple initially wanted to buy AdMob, but Google stepped in with a better offer, thus thwarting Apple.

    iPhone O.S. 4.0 and a mobile Ad revolution

    With the Quattro Wireless acquisition, Apple announced a new Ad platform for iPhone O.S. 4.0 today.

    Moreover, with the insight that people spend time within apps on the iPhone rather than on searching the web like on the Desktop, Steve Jobs demonstrated a new way for mobile ads to engage users. The ads are shown in a small banner, which when clicked, opens up as an overlay on the screen, with interactive content within this new window, like a game, a video, etc…. Nothing else exists like this on mobiles yet.

    Apple will provide %60 of revenues back to developers, so the incentive to use Ads is quite good.

    That’s Punch number 1 to Google.

    The FTC follows up Apple’s punch by one of its own

    This is Murphy’s Law at Enterprise level: on the same day that Apple announces its revolutionary iAd platform, the FTC also announces that it is blocking Google’s acquisition of AdMob (update: the post linked to seems misleading – the title says the FTC has blocked the deal, but the content mentions the FTC is still gathering information. The article looks like it’s promoting a small OTC.BB stock within the context, so perhaps Google is not knocked out yet).

    Conclusion

    Apple seems to have an overwhelming lead over Google in the mobile space, especially with the following:
    1. Excellent, precise, intuitive multi-touch implementation
    2. Very wide user-base and lots of developers and existing apps
    3. Mobile Ad lead
    4. Superb gaming platform
    5. Relentless continuous improvement of its devices and platform: launch of the iPad and iPhone OS 4 (with multitasking)
    6. Superb App Store for distribution

    Google’s advantages are the following:
    1. Open platform and Open-source implementation
    2. Better search, cloud-computing, machine learning algorithms
    3. No agenda against Adobe Flash

    I expect Apple to continue to lead this space well into 2010 and beyond unless Google does something radical with the launch of Chrome OS and perhaps, as I wish, that they overturn the usual Telecom Industry with free/very low cost VOIP calls worldwide.

    What’s new with the Gizmo5 acquisition, Google?

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    Revolutionary Computing

    “Magical, Revolutionary” – these are the words on Apple’s website regarding the iPad.

    Although tablet computers have been around for long, these words are not too far-fetched. In fact, they are truly well-deserved as Apple is the first company which has succeeded in conceiving a combination of Operating System, Graphic User Interface and multi-touch screen whose use becomes intuitive and second-nature as we naturally interact with objects with our fingers in real life this way. They did this with the iPhone, the iPod Touch and are leveraging this technology in the iPad, which is a good form factor to enjoy this technology.

    Yes, I believe the iPad is going to be absolutely revolutionary in the way it allows for human-computer interaction and for mobility.

    Multi-touch implementation of Nexus One and iPhone compared

    Actually, I have a Google Nexus One phone, but the multi-touch screen implementation on a iPod Touch or iPhone is much more precise, I have used both extensively. Time and time again, you will have to press several times on the Nexus One, or it will lose its calibration and the precision will go haywire. The workaround is to lock it by maintaining the Power button pressed and then unlocking it as usual. This usually does the trick, but still, it is an annoyance that hopefully can be fixed in software soon.

    Usability and User Interface

    Apple has posted a whole new set of videos showing its upcoming iPad default applications as well as a few which can be bought from the iPad App Store when it’s launched. Beyond the already familiar iTunes, YouTube, Videos, Photos, etc…, it is interesting to see how they reworked the interface of Pages, Keynote and Numbers to incorporate multi-touch. Watch how Keynote allows multi-touch selection and re-ordering of the slides for instance.

    Mashable also shows a few iPad application videos, and watching Kobo’s reader brought some User Interface thoughts to me immediately. Watch the video of Kobo as well as Apple’s own iBooks and you will see that there is a lot of “let’s do it exactly as if it were a real book” occurring, like modeling the page actually turning in 3D like real paper would, and Kobo’s reader also has various bookmarks just like you would have one on a real book.

    Kobo on iPad from Kobo on Vimeo.

    This is a collection of rather unnecessary gimmicks in my view. Do you really want the ebook page to turn like a real paper, with all the delay that it entails? Do you really want to see badly-designed pseudo bookmarks hanging on top of the book covers and on the paper when you resume reading?

    I don’t. I have a very good e-reader software on the Nexus One called Aldiko, which looks a lot like Apple’s poached design for iBooks. On it, I have just set the page flipping to the lowest setting so that when I do want to change the page, it is almost instantaneous. The last thing I want when e-reading is to have the same delays and impracticalities of a real book. I’s rather use the computing platform to its fullest. Yes, I do like the features of bookmarks so that I can resume e-reading, but let it be a well-formatted list of links I saved and named, and not a 3D animation of a string-like bookmark going away before I can set my eyes on the content.

    Thus, this brave new world will have a whole arena for people and companies who will know how to find ingenious ways of leveraging the platform for what it is – a computer with a fantastically organi and intuitive human-computer interface – and not plague it with unnecessary gimmicks or features.

    How magazines of the future may look

    See also Wired’s demonstration of a prototype magazine for a tablet, which they showed st SXSW 2010:

    Wired rocks audience at SXSW with iPad demo from Mangrove on Vimeo.

    Intuitive interface. So easy a baby can use it

    Watch this toddler play with an iPhone:

    All babies, including the iPad, belong to their respective parents.

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    Google Nexus one for Canada Google’s Nexus one smartphone, built by HTC in close collaboration with Google is finally available in Canada since today.

    On Google’s website, you can order the phone and have it shipped to Canada. This version will work with 3G on Rogers wireless.

    This is one step is removing the link between carriers and handset manufacturers and as a commenter mentions in the Globe’s article, opens the door for greater competition and lower prices.

    Combine this with the recent announcement that Google wants to offer broadband as an ISP and even the FCC is pushing for a national broadband plan and my winning Deloitte MyTMT 2010 prediction that one day Google is going to ad-subsidize Telecom services is one step closer.

    The last mile in this is through the air: Free Wi-Fi or a Data plan.

    Google still has to reveal how it is going to integrate its Gizmo 5 acquisition with Google Voice and Android.

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    This morning, Google announced that they were planning to offer universal, ultra-high speed Internet access at a competitive price using 1 Gigabit per second fiber-at-home connections.

    Google therefore wants to become your favorite ISP. This will allow a new generation of applications and also enable them to continue to explore Music and Video delivery by broadband but also fits into grander plans.

    Back then in November 2007, when they bought Grand Central, I thought they would one day become a Telecommunications company. Owning the fiber, the infrastructure, the shop for the handsets and the apps are so many steps in VOIP Telecommunications domination.

    The last one would be proposing some kind of wireless access built on top of their own fibre ultra-high speed network.

    See also my prediction about how Google is poised to massively disrupt the Telecommunications Industry here:

    http://www.yashlabs.com/wp/2009/12/20/top-9-reasons-why-the-google-nexus-one-phone-beats-apples-iphone/

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    deloitte TMT predictions 1
    Image by Eva Blue via Flickr

    I was at Deloitte’s TMT Prediction 2010 launch event yesterday morning at the Fairmont – The Queen Elizabeth Hotel. Here is a recap of the event and some thought on the predictions and the discussions we had during the event, including Google and Twitter. I’ll also write about Twitter and try to convince Duncan Stewart, the Director of Deloitte Canada Research: Technology, Media & Telecommunications, Life Sciences and GreenTech of why Twitter is a force to be reckoned with and is here to stay. In fact, by the time I finish this post, I have the intention of convincing any Business, Finance, Technology, Media or Telecommunication person reading it of the high value there is in following me, reading my blog and working with me for Business and Web Strategy, Industry and Business Analysis.

    Winning the MyTMT Prediction 2010

    This time around, Deloitte actually launched a competition called MyTMT prediction, opening it to the public. I was glad to be in the five finalists and also learn during the event that I won the competition with my prediction that Google is poised to massively disrupt the traditional Telecom Industry, to the applause of approximately 200 Business and Media people during the launch event yesterday, January 19th in Montreal.

    Business Strategy

    Many people have asked me what the prize was. It was recognition, from the Jury, from a big consulting firm like Deloitte and also many people in the Technology, Media and Telecommunication industries. I also won exposure, mingling with like-minded people, and participating in the conversation about foreseeing and predicting where Technology is bringing us and how it impacts our Businesses and lives. As Deloitte themselves argue, the value of the Predictions event is to

    explore emerging trends that will have an impact on Canadian businesses in 2010.

    and to

    helping their clients evaluate complex issues, develop fresh approaches to problems, and implement practical solutions.

    There are dedicated TMT practices in 45 countries in the Americas, EMEA, and Asia Pacific. DTT’s member firms serve 92 percent of the TMT companies in the Fortune Global 500. Clients of Deloitte’s member firms’ TMT practices include some of the world’s top software companies, computer manufacturers, semiconductor foundries, wireless operators, cable companies, advertising agencies, and publishers.

    About the research
    The 2010 series of Predictions has drawn on internal and external inputs including: conversations with TMT companies, contributions from DTT member firms’ 7,000 partners and senior practitioners specializing in TMT, discussions with financial and industry analysts, and conversations with trade bodies.

    Being able to foresee where things are going allows strategizing, planning for the long run. Being able to monitor things allow for swift changing of Business tactics so that the changing environment can have less deleterious effects.

    This is why Deloitte’s TMT Predictions 2010 is essential reading:

  • Technology Predictions 2010
  • Media Predictions 2010
  • Telecommunications 2010
  • Similarly, somebody reading my blog back then in 2005 would have already known the pitfalls of using Microsoft’s Internet Explorer based on quasi-prophetic words at the time, totally vindicated by the recent huge security debacle involving Microsoft, Google, China, and some other 30-odd U.S. firms this January:

    During and after these brushes with Justice, Microsoft officials have repeatedly been heard chanting the mantra “Innovation, Innovation. If Microsoft is broken into smaller pieces, we won’t be able to do our Innovation.”

    But see, before all this, by bundling their inferior Internet Explorer with Windows, they still managed to make IE the most used browser on the planet since they also force Windows down the throat of the PC-buying customer.

    But once they achieved this, what do you think they did with IE? Do you think they kept on innovating, adding features to it, sorting out the kinks, supporting Internet Standards?

    No, they sat on it for 3 years. And since IE is a security hazard, the flaws were rapidly exploited. Last year, there were countless storied of PCs being hijacked by spyware, popups everywhere, people tearing their hair off, going mad.

    All of this because Microsoft in intent on dominating a segment but does not really care about the customer, nor about innovation. And once they do, and every time a finger points at them, they will strive to cover everything up in marketing or P.R.

    Not only that, but the Mozilla team, true to Open Source spirit, regularly updated the browser. More specifically, they patched any flaw very rapidly.

    Typically, Microsoft will take weeks before even acknowledging a flaw, and if they patch it, the user is left with a vulnerable system for months.

    Internet Explorer 7 will still be flawed. The problem is Microsoft.

    MS’s IE7 will still be flawed. Microsoft still hasn’t learned to support open standards and they still haven’t learned to released a secure software. Instead they are still rushing bug-ridden software and covering it up with P.R. and marketing millions, the latest case being Visual Studio 2005.

    Then they also want you to get their Windows Defender anti-spyware software. How come they cannot patch their faulty software first and foremost?

    Microsoft hasn’t learned and won’t learn from its mistakes. It’s a monopoly and feels safe enough there. So it will rely on weird tactics for a long time. Like removing all trace of some Linux-bashing articles from the Internet. Like funding pseudo-neutral analysts to tout their software and bash alternatives. Like spreading Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt about alternate products. Like enabling only passport-registered people to post comments on their inane MS-marketing blogs. And who posts there? Well those who have MS passports, that is, MS employees primarily and who will do some mutual back-slapping hoping the community takes it up (astro-turfing – a fake grass root marketing approach). Like stubbornly not supporting Open Standards. Like pissing off customers, partners, and employees all at once. Like creating an artificial shortage of XBox 360.

    The choice is yours. Make the best one.

    You have the choice to try an alternative: the best browser in the world.

    Microsoft has been at it again: trying to minimize the seriousness of the security issues, while bashing other browsers. The Web, however, is quick to point out the flawed reasoning:

    Mashable – Microsoft downplays Internet Explorer security holes

    It takes years to change an ingrained company culture with blessings of wrongdoing from above, and knowing the software engineering advantages of open-source (“With enough eyeballs, all bugs are shallow” – Eric S. Raymond), I knew there were fundamental problems with the company itself.

    My point of view is validated today with entire governments like France and Germany saying no to Internet Explorer and urging to do the same, but only with 4 years of delay…

    So, if you would like to know what I think of where the future in Business and Technology lies, here are the essential posts you should read:

  • Revisiting past predictions – 2009
  • The essence of Google’s Success
  • Google Telecom, Hello!
  • Top 9 reasons why the Google Nexus One beats the iPhone
  • The Apple tablet and other industry disruptions signed Apple
  • Clash of the Titans – Google vs Apple in 2010 and beyond. That one was a whole two weeks before the nice BusinessWeek article.
  • And more predictions from me are here:

  • Technologies to watch for us 2010 and this decade
  • 10 Science, Business and Technology Predictions for the next decade 2010-2019
  • Predictions discussion

    a. Google

    After the presentation of my prediction, Duncan Stewart said “You nailed it. I think for everything, you nailed it. But I don’t agree with one thing”.

    And that was about how in the US, people are very used to a certain level of customer service. He does have a point, especially judging by the flood of questions and complaints regarding an issue with continuous switching between Edge and 3G networks. This got the Google-T-Mobile-HTC trinity passing a hot potato around for a while.

    Personally, I think it’s just growing pains for Google, but the bases of the innovative disruption are already there and the consumer will like that.

    Check out this very insightful text by Jon Stokes on Ars Technica where he describes how selling the handset unlocked and separately from the carrier changes the competitive landscape:

    Because AT&T has ensnared—and locked in—legions of consumers with the iPhone, the company’s incentive is to minimize their infrastructure spending so that they can maximize per-user profits. AT&T also has a motive to nickel-and-dime you to death, because it has you locked in with that amazing phone and its accompanying ETF.

    b. Twitter

    Asked by Michelle Blanc about what his thoughts on Twitter and its positive role in the aftermath of the Haiti disaster were, Duncan turned out not to be such a big fan of Twitter after all.

    Here is what I think Duncan should do to do to get more out of Twitter:

    1. Use TweetDeck (my favourite) or Seesmic (using it on Android since TweetDeck is not available and it’s very good indeed) to separate different streams into columns: “All Friends”, “Direct Messages”, “Mentions”. In TweetDeck, you can also add your Facebook column.

    2. If you like Finance, Trading and Investments,
    – register for StockTwits
    – download the Nasdaq QFolio app for the iPhone in the App store and follow what people are saying on StockTwits for each ticker.

    3. Follow people of interest, those with expertise and breaking news, through search or pre-existing lists on other people’s profiles or on TweetDeck’s homepage. e.g. Follow @howardlinzon, and @fredwilson

    Here is why I think Twitter is important:

    1. Nasdaq has built an iPhone app which leverages StockTwits, which itself leverages Twitter. I bet this is going to be important for algorithmic trading.

    2. Twitter has made deals with Google and Microsoft to the tune of $25M so that their realtime search results appear in the two giants’ traditional search engines

    3. Twitter has an ecosystem of 50,000 apps, and growing. It has become a platform where people use it for marketing and finance. This is crucial and there area many other details in my criteria for IPO selection in Two IPOs to look forward to in 2010.

    4. Remember IRC channels during the Iraq war? Twitter plays that role today, and much more. Breakout news happens there first, and much later on other channels.

    5. I was spending some night in New York and at one point in time there were insistent traffic of fire-trucks and I thought “This is not the city that never sleeps – it’s rather the city where you can never sleep”. My first reflex? Checking #NYC on Twitter to see if there was any danger in the vicinity. Similarly, Twitter will become essential for alerting you to any opportunities in your surroundings. That’s part of the power of real-time and location-based services.

    6. Twitter allows you to do social computing. Your trusted friends and contacts will help when you have a genuine question and if you are helpful too.

    7. Last but not least… Dell made $6.5M through Twitter channels sales in two years.

    Solar

    I was a bit disappointed to hear that solar would have some difficulties along the 2010 because of a supply glut. However, stumbling blocks can turn into stepping stones – this may be an opportunity to regularly stock up on the equities, value-averaging along the way until the big break provided the choice is made carefully.

    How Deloitte leveraged Social Media for TMT Predictions 2010

    Deloitte did very well in leveraging Social Media prior and up to the event. First, they decided to open up submissions from the public, leveraging user-generated content.

    They further leveraged several social media applications, services and strategies and Katheline Jean-Pierre has been a driving force behind that, and I actually learned about the MyTMT prediction through her Facebook and Twitter feeds.

    Deloitte was present on the Web, on Twitter, and on Facebook, together with UStream, YouTube etc…

    Deloitte called upon Laurent Maisonnave of ZeAgence to build upon his social media and video streaming skills – the event was filmed and streamed to Deloitte’s UStream channel in realtime over the web.

    They leveraged the Wildfire application for Facebook, which allows campaign management. Any participant could upload their videos and then invite their Facebook friends to vote through the Wildfire app embedded in Deloitte’s MyTMT web page.

    Before and during the event, Deloitte had communicated and prominently displayed its hashtag for the event (#TMTPrediction2010 or #TMTPred2010) for others to include in their Tweets.

    This morning, I was also flabbergasted to learn that my prediction was shown to 400 Business people at the event in Toronto.

    Actually, it will also be shown throughout Canada during Deloitte’s stops in major cities during their TMT Prediction events. I believe they are:
    Winnipeg, Quebec, Ottawa, Calgary, Halifax and Vancouver.

    Thanks Deloitte for this opportunity and kudos to the team, Duncan, Robert, Peter, Katheline, Laurent and the Jury members.

    Reblog this post [with Zemanta]

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    My submission is among the five finalists at the Deloitte Canada TMT Prediction, with Vincent Abry, Jenna Hoffman, Jean-Luc Sanscartier and Guillaume Bouchard. For the first time, Deloitte opened up predictions to the public, through a Wildfire application integrated with Facebook.

    The event is tomorrow at the Fairmont – The Queen Elizabeth in Montreal from 8 a.m. to 10 a.m.

    You can see all 5 finalists and their predictions over here.

    The submission by the NVI founder, Guillaume Bouchard smacks of marketing as the conversation underneath the submission sounds fake, which shouldn’t be surprising seeing that NVI does just that. However, it is true that the competition among mobile telecom manufacturers will heat up. In fact, all mobile devices will be implicated, including notebooks and tablets.

    My own submission has a very bad description on the page, which I tried to get corrected but visibly the incorrect description is still online:

    Additionally, Josh predicts that Google’s offering of the free turn-by-turn GPS, Chrome OS, along with free wi-fi service in 47 airports, will greatly impact the telecommunications industry.

    Totally not what I said as actually, this disruptive behavior by Google tells me they are not scared to disrupt industries at all and therefore they could disrupt the Telco industry. I just hope that the visual presentation makes that clear.

    It’s going to be a lot of fun attending and also seeing the main TMT prediction event tomorrow.

    Well done to the other participants too, Louis Cleroux, Kim Auclair, Ron Bunn, Arun Kirupananthan, Bernard Dahl. Laurent Marcoux also submitted a video, but unfortunately I could never see it for some reason.

    All in all, the Wildfire app. is great. However, some people have had trouble with their videos’ thumbnails not displaying properly in some sections, including me.

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    Google Nexus One

    Google Nexus One

    Following yesterday’s Google Nexus One launch, based on the reading habits of most people, who scan texts and read in an ‘F’ form, most people would have missed the following insights which are at the very end of the articles:

    From Tim O’Reilly, who noticed and amplified the buzz around Web 2.0 four years ago:

    Picasa and iPhoto both sport image recognition, but Apple has to train its algorithms on sample data sets, while Google gets to train Picasa on billions of user images. As Peter Norvig, Google’s chief scientist, once said to me, “We don’t have better algorithms. We just have more data.” Collective intelligence is the secret sauce of Web 2.0, and the future of all computing, and by locking user data into individual devices, Apple cuts itself off from this future. Rather than having MobileMe as a separate revenue add-on, Apple needs to make all of its applications web-connected by default, so that they can learn from all their users.

    What we see then is a collision of paradigms, perhaps as profound as the transition between the character-based era of computing and the GUI based era of the Mac and Windows. We’re moving from the era in which the device is primary and the web is an add-on, to the era in which a device and its applications are fundamentally dependent on the internet operating system that provides location, speech recognition, image recognition, social network awareness, and other fundamental data services.

    We’re in for an interesting ride. – Tim O’Reilly

    Good to see Tim quote Peter Norvig, who is an expert in AI. However, I think Norvig understates one of Google’s keystone algorithms: Machine Learning.

    From David Pogue (Pogue is wrong, the machine doesn’t lack a multi-touch screen – it’s software disabled, but Pogue has some insights too):

    But at the start, at least, the results are a pair of head-scratchers. The Nexus One is an excellent app phone, fast and powerful but marred by some glitches and missing features — a worthy competitor to the Droid, if not the iPhone. The Google phone store is a neat, centralized place to buy phones, but so far, it offers zero advantages over buying a T-Mobile phone any other way.

    Even so, you should root for the Google Store’s success, because the obnoxious policies and fees of the American cellphone companies have gotten out of control. Anything with even a fighting chance of putting power and choice back in your hands is cause for celebration.- David Pogue

    From Jon Stokes, comes a highly insightful take on how this disrupts the existing status quo that the marriage of carrier-subsidized handsets creates relative to telecommunications quality:

    Right now, with specific phone models available only on specific carriers, consumers must pick a carrier and phone combination. Many consumers actually pick a phone first, and then pick their carrier based on it (witness the mass customer defection to AT&T when the iPhone was announced). If you want to keep using that phone, you have to keep using that carrier. If you want to switch phones without incurring a huge early termination fee (ETF), then you’re limited to the selection that your carrier offers in your area.

    This is bad for consumers, but it’s great for carriers. Carriers don’t have to compete solely on network quality; rather, they compete based on a combination of network quality and phone selection. And because they compete partly (mostly?) on phone selection, their incentives are twofold:

    They want to offer the largest number of attractive, leading-edge phones in order to attract a user base, and
    They want to wring the most money out of that user base for the lowest possible cost.
    Incentive number 2 is why wireless networks have performance issues, and why AT&T’s network gets more complaints than all others. Call it the “iPhone curse,” after the “resource curse” that seems to leave oil-rich nations mired in petty tyranny. Because AT&T has ensnared—and locked in—legions of consumers with the iPhone, the company’s incentive is to minimize their infrastructure spending so that they can maximize per-user profits. AT&T also has a motive to nickel-and-dime you to death, because it has you locked in with that amazing phone and its accompanying ETF.

    In sum, as long as Apple’s red-hot iPhone keeps new customers coming to AT&T and keeps existing customers around in spite of the poor service quality, the carrier has little incentive to actually improve its network, and every incentive to cram as many iPhone users as possible onto each cell tower.

    If Google’s carrier-independent store succeeds spectacularly, it could break the curse. If the idea behind it succeeds, that could break the curse as well. Wouldn’t it be great if Apple ran a similarly carrier-independent iPhone store, or Nokia did the same with its smartphone lineup? I, for one, want to live in a world where a carrier competes for my business by being cheaper and faster than the next guy, and not because it has a phone I want. That’s why I’m rooting for Google’s store idea to catch on, regardless of what the Nexus One kills or doesn’t kill.

    Other interesting articles out yesterday and today which talk about mobile telecom industry disruption from Google, which I foretold in 2007 myself:

  • The Google Phone’s Disruptive Potential
  • Google’s biggest phone move: disrupting carriers by selling direct to you
  • A week after my “Clash of the Titans – Google vs Apple in 2010 and beyond”, The Financial Times has an article today by John Gapper, called “Google’s open battle with Apple”, which delves into how open or closed each company is.

    One thing both Apple and Google have learned is that a solely proprietary strategy has flaws, just as one of pure openness does. They compete by openly expanding their reach while staying partly closed.

    So take with a pinch of salt all manifestos about complete openness. Any company that is as valuable as Google is wilier than that. – John Gapper

    The thing is, in reality, it has always been true to compete aggressively around your core strengths in business. The fact that Google highly leverages open-source contributions bi-directionally gives it an optimizing edge that Apple does not have in the long-term.

    In other news, Apple ditches Intel for Qualcomm’s SnapDragon platform (update: actually, this links, says it’s NOT a SnapDragon), which already powers the Nexus One. Big win for Qualcomm, but also for ARM

    Additional good news for ARM: Marvell shows the first quad-core ARM-powered chip (Fortune/GigaOM).

    This does not bode well for Intel, which already had troubles launching the Larrabee chip, but also has a few lawsuits to contend with, including the notion of making its compiler work well only on its own chips.

    Bloomberg has a good article on the chip wars today and “How Intel is vulnerable now as people shift to mobile phones to surf”.

    Why Google trumps Microsoft on the Web, even if Microsoft buys Yahoo.

    Scott Karp, a professional blogger, has a good explanation: “Google is a web-native company”.

    The Wallstrip Edge – Howard Linzon

    Substitute MS for Apple above?

    2010 is turning out every bit as exciting as I thought it would be.

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    Google Nexus One

    Google Nexus One

    As expected, the first Google-branded phone launched today with a panel of invited bloggers and influencers, who each went home with both a Nexus One and a Sim Card to go with it.

    One audience member asked “Where’s the disruption, You’re Google, if you can’t do it, who can?”, to which the reply was “Baby steps”. It’s all about going forward in your plans stealthily, and I guess things would have been very different had the AdMod acquisition gone through smoothly. Apple retaliated by acquiring Quattro Wireless today itself, showing us how the clash between these two titans is heating up right into the start of 2010 as I wrote earlier, but I wonder how Apple is going to meld ads into the user experience.

    More disruption will occur when Google Voice and Google Talk and the Gizmo5 technology is integrated into the handset. Remember: it isn’t about the handset with Google. Google is leveraging its brand to change how you access Telecommunications. It’s about a vision of making business more efficient and grabbing market-share where others are sleeping on their laurels, and of course, serving the end-user.

    Read the complete specifications. Some noteworthy ones:

  • Qualcomm’s 1GHz SnapDragon is there as planned in its QSD 8250 incarnation. This thing can support up to 12 Megapixels for the camera and a resolution of 1280×720
  • The gorgeous 3.7-inch AMOLED touchscreen has 800 x 480 pixels resolution with a whopping 100,000:1 contrast ratio.
  • Photos can be location-tagged thanks to the AGPS receiver and integration with YouTube is seamless
  • All the features for Augmented Reality apps are available as mentioned in my previous post
  • Google’s speech-to-text is included so you can, among other things search by voice or command Google Earth by voice (or any apps with text fields basically)
  • Try the 3D tour here: http://www.google.com/googlephone/tour/

    Try the interface itself and order from here if you’re luckily living in the USA, Hong Kong and Singapore – No such luck for us Canadians as the message “Sorry, the Nexus One phone is not available in your country” attests:

    http://www.google.com/phone

    Price: US $529 unlocked, $179 with T-Mobile contract, and in spring, Verizon and Vodafone support are coming.

    Multi-Touch support

    Andy Rubin seemed to fumble a bit when asked about multi-touch on the Nexus One. “We’ll consider it” and “it’s a software issue” means that the hardware itself is capable of multi-touch.

    In addition, the Dolphin browser supports multi-touch.

    Flash support

    Adrian Ludwig from Adobe Systems demonstrates the forthcoming Flash support (it’s not there out of the box), but Apple’s Flash support for the iPhone is still broken as I wrote previously.

    Open handset alliance and Open-source

    No doubt this first incarnation is going to be hacked (hacked as in optimized by the Android/open-source community) to death as it relies on open-source, and so I expect many enhancements to be forthcoming and frequent. Google announced that a growing number of companies have joined the Open Handset Alliance from which Apple and Microsoft are conspicuously absent.

    More links to whet your appetite

    Phandroid’s review – where the iPhone trumps both the Droid and the Nexus one in a browser page loading test with scrolling.

    Tim O’Reilly’s long piece about it

    TechCrunch’s review

    Gizmodo’s overview.

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    On the hardware/software front, these two are what I am watching this year:

    Google’s Nexus One phone

    I like Android, open-source and Google, and I want my machines to compute for me and access data and information on-the-go.

    In addition, when the service is ready, I will communicate worldwide using Google Voice through it, doing away with the hefty charges Traditional Telcos pass onto the consumer.

    Apple’s tablet or as some say ‘tablets’.

    It is rumoured that one tablet will be sold as an eBook reader and another one as a general-purpose computer. Personally, I wish that Apple just gives us a multi-touch general-purpose computer, and I prefer Snow Leopard 64-bit rather than the iPhone O.S.

    In any case, Google and Apple will clash on several fronts as I detail in a previous post.

    I like the following design prototype, and if anybody can make it work like this, it is Apple.

    Mag+ from Bonnier on Vimeo.

    As for web services, the following are going to be instrumental in the coming years’ socio-cultural and technological evolution:

    Augmented Reality

    Applications like Layar and Tonchidot’s Sekai Camera will pave the way for location-aware applications and services. For these, your Internet mobile devices need a camera, GPS, a magnetometer or compass as well as an accelerometer. I like Google Goggles too.

    The Internet of Things

    Pachube is another web service and technology I find fascinating after reading Richard McManus’s posts about it on ReadWriteWeb.

    A lot of the benefits will be made through mobile computing devices and smart phones.

    Read:

    Morgan Stanley/Mary Meeker’s Mobile Internet Report.

    Mobile computing is ramping up faster than the Desktop Internet did, as there are 5 trends converging:
    3G, Social Networking, Video, VOIP, Impressive Mobile Devices.

    and

    Fred Wilson’s areas of interest.

    Augmented Human

    This will be a trend for the next decade, a time like no other in history where technology empowers and augments Human capacities. This entails watching anything having to do with AI.

    Any application or service which allow me to enhance aspects of my human life is going to fall in this category, like Networked-computing, Cloud-computing and Social Computing, and AI of course.

    Augmented Human apps and services will exponentially increase society intelligence.

    Web 3.0 or the Semantic web

    I think that 2010 is the year where semantic applications and services become prominent and usable for the mainstream.

    A key factor to overcome is the inertia of publishers to push structured Web data. The answer is to allow the infrastructure to do that automatically, e.g. your WordPress platform.

    One service I am watching here is Thomson-Reuters’ Open-Calais.

    Trading & Investment applications using one or more of the above.

    I am especially excited by the prospects in systematic or algorithmic trading and analytics. In fact, I believe we should be doing a DOW theory 2.0 right now.

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    The next decade begins with two behemoth software (slash hardware) companies going at each other: Google and Apple. I like both of them as well as their leaders, so it will be a fantastic time to watch how it all unfolds as from early 2010.

    Mobile Telecommunications

    On January 5th, Google will most probably announce the availability of its own Google-branded phone, the Nexus One. Already billed as an iPhone-killer, it is going to be no small feat for Google to overtake Apple’s established dominance.

    However, ‘no small feat’ does not mean that Google cannot make it. Actually, I don’t think Google is actively pursuing gaining market share from Apple in Mobile Telecommunications. In reality, Google is pursuing a vision, the efficiency and immediacy of a digital lifestyle optimized by Google Engineers. That this pits Google against Apple within the Mobile Telecommunication space is coincidental, an emergent phenomenon.

    Some people are questioning that Google’s move into the handset branding will kill its own partners who manufacture handsets. I don’t think this is the case since the hardware itself is built by HTC and all the software enhancements can trickle to other manufacturers. Here, I have the distinct impression that Gartner analysts do not get open-source or the implications within Google’s own eco-system.

    Although the inroads by Apple with the iPhone and the iPhone O.S.-based iPod Touch are amazing, Apple breaks Google’s services on their devices. Ever tried using Google Analytics or Google Finance on an iPhone or iPod touch? They don’t work as Apple restricts Flash.

    Apple’s machines have sub-standard multi-tasking, and Apple does not like handing control or enhancements to the open-source community. Google, on the other hand, will have good multi-tasking out-of-the-box and loves open-source. To be successful in Technology and Business in this day and age, I advise that you build ‘hackability’ into your product or service. Let it be open and allow other people to build on it.

    Here, my preference goes to Google although I appreciate Apple bringing such an impressive multi-touch screen and UI to the masses and I expect Google to subsidize a Telecommunication service through ads as they usually do. I just hope that the FCC and other organizations don’t block the acquisition of AdMob further.

    It will hard to resist the brand appeal and a phone which reminds you simultaneously of BladeRunner and Tron.

    Mobile computing – Netbooks and smartbooks

    Apple has enjoyed enormous success with its laptops. The latest machines are innovative, with the multi-touch trackpad, the amazing screens and 64-bit Snow Leopard with Grand Central Dispatch (easily dispatch computing to several cores) and OpenCL (harness the GPU for computing).

    With Google-branded notebooks rumoured for the end of next year, I expect the two to clash again in the mobile computing space.

    It will all boil down to what value the end-user derives when on-the-go. Do you derive more value from using the Web and connecting to your social networking applications than doing hard computing?

    If so, Google will eat up market share, as it will be cheaper. The rumoured specifications are superlative, with SSD being the norm as well as computing power by ARM and graphics powered by NVIDIA’s Tegra. With no moving parts and a higher throughput, Google’s machine can be faster and optimized for the Web.

    It is still open whether Apple’s own tablet (an Apple announcement for the 26th of January is planned) will contain the iPhone O.S. or Snow Leopard but that device will also compete in a similar space. No doubt this will pitch Apple into the eBook industry and Google already occupies some of the space here because of their Book digitizing activities.

    I love the Apple machines and Snow Leopard 64-bit, and for the moment I give them the edge, but I am open to the fact that Google could wow us all at the end of 2010.

    If there is one thing that Google should do, it’s not to reinvent the wheel but rather leverage Linux for the computing intensive applications.

    The Cloud

    Google has optimized data centers around the world and scalable architecture, built on customized open-source GNU/Linux. Google’s cost of development of Operating System and software is minimized as it highly leverages existing Open-source code and volunteers around the world. Google has its core operating architecture optimized even down to the level of hard disk drivers.

    Google optimized DNS resolution, optimized JavaScript, owns dark fiber, builds one of the fastest JavaScript browsers ever, is preparing a Chrome-based Operating System, etc…

    What does Apple have?

    Google unquestionably has the edge for the Cloud. And I argue that Google’s edge in Cloud computing goes beyond any other cloud computing offering in the world because it is the better engineered solution.

    Videos

    Google has YouTube, which reigns supreme with the user-generated content/’Broadcast Yourself’ crowd. The addition of HD videos on YouTube has increased the quality level very much. Being free because of ad-subsidization is a boon,but can also be a distraction.

    Here, however, I would prefer buying HD from Apple, as my user experience would be better – I don’t get ads unless the ads are product placement inside the content, not inside the player.

    Music

    With iTunes, the Apple Store and such a wonderful experience finding songs, being recommended new artists, albums and songs by Genius and purchasing songs immediately downloaded, Apple has an edge.

    However, Google potentially has better algorithms for recommendations for music. Apple grabbed Lala as well and is targeting music streaming from the cloud, so Apple is leading the way here.

    It remains to be seen how Google manages this space.

    Google vs Apple

    Google vs Apple

    Conclusion

    All in all, 2010 and the next decade will be a fantastic time to watch these two companies and their leaders compete. To me, Google has the better algorithms and engineered products at the software engineering level while Apple has better hardware, design and user experience.

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    At the close of 2009, it is time to revisit my past predictions and see how I fared. I find that with time, my blog has become more self-referential as things I have envisioned years ago – sometimes up to 4 years ago – become validated or progress in the general direction I foretold.

    1. Google Telecom, Hello! – July 2nd, 2007

    Google

    Google

    I envisioned then as TechCrunch had featured a rumour that Google was going to buy GrandCentral, that Google was bent on becoming a Telco or ISP themselves.

    The acquisition of GrandCentral and mobile ambitions – The Google phone?

    GrandCentral provides you with one phone number linked to all your existing phone numbers, and many other features (thanks to Techcrunch for this great overview) through its website and also through your mobile.

    There have been rumors of the Google phone before, and such a device with the mobile Google applications, linked to all the Google integrated goodies mentioned above would be pure bliss for managing and sharing data and event information with contacts when either online or offline thanks to Google Gears.

    Google’s killer move

    Here is what I predict will happen with Google Telecom. Based on the current state of Telecom, i.e. VOIP disrupting the industry with the old Telcos still charging too much while there are cheaper VOIP offers like the Gizmo Project, Skype, VBuzzer and Jajah, Google will adopt a similar strategy to Google Apps. With Google Apps, Google has a tiered access: free access for users and paid access for businesses.

    I believe Google Telecom will offer free calls locally and worldwide to fixed telephone lines and mobiles to individual users and basic paid access for businesses and bring a more severe disruption of the Telecom industry as it will rely on getting more advertising through these channels. Alternately, Google could use the Google Web infrastructure to position itself as an ISP and offer free Internet access to all too.

    That’s a killer strategy, and they can pull it off. Beautifully at that.

    2. How Apple will revolutionize music-making – March 11th, 2007

    Apple

    Apple

    Months before the launch of the iPhone, I foresaw how the multi-touch device will change the way we make music, essentially because multi-touch is organic and enables the use of the device as Midi controllers.

    However, the iPhone and the iPod Touch are a little too small for a big revolution. The forthcoming tablet will be different. Being bigger, we can expect many more practical uses like playing virtual instruments live, using the tablet as a virtual mixer and sequencer and so on.

    Conclusion

    The whole experience of how you make music within a sequencer with virtual instruments is about to be revolutionized by Apple with a forthcoming combination of multi-touch hardware and software based on Logic and running on at least Leopard.

    The very act of recording, manipulating and producing music on a computer will become an organic performance in itself.

    I don’t know when it’s coming, but I do know it’s soon, probably this year, and it’s going to be Apple and Leopard+.

    The Next three ones come from a long post called The Web O.S., Web 2.0, yubnub and YashNub dated October 10th, 2005.

    A revolution is under way. It is one of those times when technologies developed separately converge and congeal. From this emerges a new system that is better than the sum of its parts.

    3. The Web O.S. / The Cloud – October 10th, 2005

    This begs the question of how to propagate technical requirements to an underlying platform to enhance the end-user’s experience with Web 2.0.

    The first point of contact is the user’s browser.

    My view of the Web OS is that it must be a combination of the computer’s OS and the browser.

    Given Firefox and AJAX and great web services, there will be an increasing migration of desktop applications to remotely hosted locations on the web. Of course, not all applications can be hosted this way yet – desktop installed apps will still be around for a long time.

    But assuming increased hosted services, it is a simple and logical step to envision that the computer OS can itself be tweaked for Web 2.0 usage. In other words, you could enhance existing Web support, but in addition, you could also strip an existing computer OS from any superfluous capabilities and code. You would then obtain a low-cost alternative to the bloated (and sometimes expensive) OSes currently available.

    These WebOS 2.0 PC’s, being cheaper, could be used to power schools, especially in developing and third world countries and businesses alike.

    Businesses would also benefit of broadband connections to leverage hosted services.

    Although schools in poor areas may have broadband, they would still benefit of the network architecture: imagine just one server providing the necessary web services to a class of pupils. They could all be writing their assignment with a software like Writely.

    The whole of the software service maintenance is outsourced – this is less costly in time and money for anyone using a PC with Web OS.

    Of note recently is the announcement of the partnership between Google and Sun for cross-marketing of their services. This fuelled a lot of speculation about whether a Web version of StarOffice would be in the works. In addition, people have been talking about a possible Google browser and GoogleOS.

    I envision the future Web O.S. to be a stripped down Linux distribution with subsequent enhancements. And the single distribution which is poised as the best contender has to be Mark Shuttleworth’s forever free Ubuntu Linux.

    Based on the above, I don’t think Google is preparing a browser or O.S. Because both the browser (Firefox) and the Computer OS (Ubuntu Linux) already exist, it doesn’t seem to be a good strategy to me.

    4. Firefox – October 20th, 2005

    In December 2009, Firefox overtakes IE 7 to become the Word’s most popular browser.

    Firefox

    Firefox


    My weapon of choice in this area is Firefox and it should be yours too. Mozilla’s awesome open-source browser is highly customizable through a variety of extensions. A personal favourite is GreaseMonkey which allows you to install scripts that personalize the browsing experience of some sites, removing annoyances in some cases or enhancing functionality in others.

    My view of the Web OS is that it must be a combination of the computer’s OS and the browser. The advantage with a browser like Firefox is that it is already cross-platform and standards-based. It is therefore a candidate of choice for basing any development of the Web 2.0 services.

    I also praised Firefox in this other post in November 2005 – Firefox, the world best browser.

    Not only that, but the Mozilla team, true to Open Source spirit, regularly updated the browser. More specifically, they patched any flaw very rapidly.

    5. Ruby on Rails – October 10th, 2005

    Twitter

    Twitter

    Thanks to launching with Ruby on Rails, Twitter has managed to raise $25M at the end of this year.

    Ruby on Rails

    Ruby on Rails

    Ruby on Rails is a Rapid Web Development framework built using Ruby, an open-source and truly object-oriented programming language.

    Ruby

    Ruby

    I am quite fond of Matsumoto-san’s Ruby language and hence I founded a local Ruby user Group.

    Ruby on Rails has made the development of new web services a disarmingly simple thing to do. The very implementation of the Rails framework enables you not to have to repeat yourself in your code. Actually, a lot of the code is automatically generated.

    Thanks to David Heinemeier Hansson and thousand of other contributors, RoR is and will continue to be a driving force for evolving Web 2.0 because it’s now easy and fast to build new applications. It’s also worth mentioning that RoR now incorporates AJAX functionality by default.

    6. Open-source

    I have been involved in Linux User Groups and the open-source community for more than a decade and I use and recommend open-source software for that much to enterprises and individuals alike.

    Open-source continues to grow as an influential way of building technology and businesses. Sometimes, the open-source product is better engineered than the commercial product, since:

  • Companies usually operate in an economy of resources mode and management often have no clue what development is about.
  • In the open-source world, “with sufficient eyeballs, all bugs are shallow”, meaning that someone, somewhere in the world is an expert in solving exactly the problem or bug that the software has and can do so in a small period of time.
  • Therefore, building proprietary solutions from scratch is an increasingly losing battle. It is much better to build around open-source software and open standards, ensuring interoperability and robustness.

    Facebook, Twitter, WordPress, Ubuntu, Google, Apple Mac OS X are all built with or around open-source software.

    By the way, Eric Raymond, the term ‘open source’ won – we rarely hear of Free Software anymore. However, let’s not forget the seminal work of Richard Stallman.

    At the close of 2009, one of the most impressive companies of the decade relies heavily on Open-source software, contributes heavily to the Open-Source community and has evolved into a major player in several industries by building a hybrid business model:

    Proprietary or closed-sourced core algorithms and technology
    +
    Heavily leverage open-source technology and contribute back to the community

    That company is Google and is a great model for merging technology and business and succeeding in the digital age and the knowledge economy. Note that to replicate Google’s success, you also have to rely heavily on Engineers and Engineering in Computer Science.

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    More details have emerged about Google’s Nexus One phone and their plans for Telecommunications.

    CNET broke some news about leaked phone prices:

  • $530 unlocked directly from Google at http://www.google/phone
  • $180 subsidized with a 2-year contract from T-Mobile.
  • Google invited people for an Android event for January 5th, 2010, where the availability of the phone will most probably be announced early in the morning.

    eWeek has an article with Bradley Horowitz, Vice President of Product Management at Google, speaking about some of Google’s vision for Telecommunication.

    A Google executive said the company has only scratched the surface of what it plans to do with Google Voice, the phone management application that lets users route calls to all of their phones from one unique number.

    Google in November acquired Gizmo5, a maker of so-called softphone software that will enable Google Voice to operate like Skype by letting users place calls via the Web from one PC to another or from a PC to a landline or mobile phone.

    Bradley Horowitz, vice president of product management, declined to outline specifics for how Google is implementing Gizmo5 with Google Voice. However, Horowitz, who joined Google from Yahoo almost two years ago and oversees Gmail, Google Docs, Picasa and other Google Apps, was very enthusiastic about the move and Google Voice on the whole in a recent interview with eWEEK:

    “What we’re trying to do with telephony is give people a seamless experience that frees up their telephony communication from the silos where it’s lived for the last decade. Voicemail, my contacts, all of those things have been segregated from the rest of my Web experience. We have big plans to do a better job.
    Voicemail transcription, inbox integration and threaded SMS are fantastic features, but we’re really just scratching the surface. Gizmo5 gives us talent and talent technology. They have specific tech and skills in further integrating telephony with devices and desktop and Web-based computing. We want to make sure you’re communication is available to you irrespective of where you are at, what device you have in your pocket, etc.”
    Horowitz said Google sees not only the future of communications funneling through the Web, but every computing service for work and play.

    Read more here: Google Has Big Plans for Google Voice, Cloud Computing in 2010

    In addition, in an interview with Ken Auletta, who stayed 13 weeks with the Google team in Silicon Valley, wrote a new book about Google, you can hear this at around 4:18:

    Why can’t we have free phone service?

    In the World of Google, the Engineer is King.

    This is why Google manages to be efficient and also work out inefficiencies in systems and businesses.

    Auletta’s book is called “Googled – The End of the World as We know it”:

    Google will charge for their phone service but it will be heavily subsidized by ads.

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