I was at Deloitte’s TMT Prediction 2010 launch event yesterday morning at the Fairmont – The Queen Elizabeth Hotel. Here is a recap of the event and some thought on the predictions and the discussions we had during the event, including Google and Twitter. I’ll also write about Twitter and try to convince Duncan Stewart, the Director of Deloitte Canada Research: Technology, Media & Telecommunications, Life Sciences and GreenTech of why Twitter is a force to be reckoned with and is here to stay. In fact, by the time I finish this post, I have the intention of convincing any Business, Finance, Technology, Media or Telecommunication person reading it of the high value there is in following me, reading my blog and working with me for Business and Web Strategy, Industry and Business Analysis.
Winning the MyTMT Prediction 2010
This time around, Deloitte actually launched a competition called MyTMT prediction, opening it to the public. I was glad to be in the five finalists and also learn during the event that I won the competition with my prediction that Google is poised to massively disrupt the traditional Telecom Industry, to the applause of approximately 200 Business and Media people during the launch event yesterday, January 19th in Montreal.
Business Strategy
Many people have asked me what the prize was. It was recognition, from the Jury, from a big consulting firm like Deloitte and also many people in the Technology, Media and Telecommunication industries. I also won exposure, mingling with like-minded people, and participating in the conversation about foreseeing and predicting where Technology is bringing us and how it impacts our Businesses and lives. As Deloitte themselves argue, the value of the Predictions event is to
explore emerging trends that will have an impact on Canadian businesses in 2010.
and to
helping their clients evaluate complex issues, develop fresh approaches to problems, and implement practical solutions.
There are dedicated TMT practices in 45 countries in the Americas, EMEA, and Asia Pacific. DTT’s member firms serve 92 percent of the TMT companies in the Fortune Global 500. Clients of Deloitte’s member firms’ TMT practices include some of the world’s top software companies, computer manufacturers, semiconductor foundries, wireless operators, cable companies, advertising agencies, and publishers.
About the research
The 2010 series of Predictions has drawn on internal and external inputs including: conversations with TMT companies, contributions from DTT member firms’ 7,000 partners and senior practitioners specializing in TMT, discussions with financial and industry analysts, and conversations with trade bodies.
Being able to foresee where things are going allows strategizing, planning for the long run. Being able to monitor things allow for swift changing of Business tactics so that the changing environment can have less deleterious effects.
This is why Deloitte’s TMT Predictions 2010 is essential reading:
Similarly, somebody reading my blog back then in 2005 would have already known the pitfalls of using Microsoft’s Internet Explorer based on quasi-prophetic words at the time, totally vindicated by the recent huge security debacle involving Microsoft, Google, China, and some other 30-odd U.S. firms this January:
During and after these brushes with Justice, Microsoft officials have repeatedly been heard chanting the mantra “Innovation, Innovation. If Microsoft is broken into smaller pieces, we won’t be able to do our Innovation.”
But see, before all this, by bundling their inferior Internet Explorer with Windows, they still managed to make IE the most used browser on the planet since they also force Windows down the throat of the PC-buying customer.
But once they achieved this, what do you think they did with IE? Do you think they kept on innovating, adding features to it, sorting out the kinks, supporting Internet Standards?
No, they sat on it for 3 years. And since IE is a security hazard, the flaws were rapidly exploited. Last year, there were countless storied of PCs being hijacked by spyware, popups everywhere, people tearing their hair off, going mad.
All of this because Microsoft in intent on dominating a segment but does not really care about the customer, nor about innovation. And once they do, and every time a finger points at them, they will strive to cover everything up in marketing or P.R.
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Not only that, but the Mozilla team, true to Open Source spirit, regularly updated the browser. More specifically, they patched any flaw very rapidly.Typically, Microsoft will take weeks before even acknowledging a flaw, and if they patch it, the user is left with a vulnerable system for months.
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Internet Explorer 7 will still be flawed. The problem is Microsoft.MS’s IE7 will still be flawed. Microsoft still hasn’t learned to support open standards and they still haven’t learned to released a secure software. Instead they are still rushing bug-ridden software and covering it up with P.R. and marketing millions, the latest case being Visual Studio 2005.
Then they also want you to get their Windows Defender anti-spyware software. How come they cannot patch their faulty software first and foremost?
Microsoft hasn’t learned and won’t learn from its mistakes. It’s a monopoly and feels safe enough there. So it will rely on weird tactics for a long time. Like removing all trace of some Linux-bashing articles from the Internet. Like funding pseudo-neutral analysts to tout their software and bash alternatives. Like spreading Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt about alternate products. Like enabling only passport-registered people to post comments on their inane MS-marketing blogs. And who posts there? Well those who have MS passports, that is, MS employees primarily and who will do some mutual back-slapping hoping the community takes it up (astro-turfing – a fake grass root marketing approach). Like stubbornly not supporting Open Standards. Like pissing off customers, partners, and employees all at once. Like creating an artificial shortage of XBox 360.
The choice is yours. Make the best one.
You have the choice to try an alternative: the best browser in the world.
Microsoft has been at it again: trying to minimize the seriousness of the security issues, while bashing other browsers. The Web, however, is quick to point out the flawed reasoning:
Mashable – Microsoft downplays Internet Explorer security holes
It takes years to change an ingrained company culture with blessings of wrongdoing from above, and knowing the software engineering advantages of open-source (“With enough eyeballs, all bugs are shallow” – Eric S. Raymond), I knew there were fundamental problems with the company itself.
My point of view is validated today with entire governments like France and Germany saying no to Internet Explorer and urging to do the same, but only with 4 years of delay…
So, if you would like to know what I think of where the future in Business and Technology lies, here are the essential posts you should read:
And more predictions from me are here:
Predictions discussion
a. Google
After the presentation of my prediction, Duncan Stewart said “You nailed it. I think for everything, you nailed it. But I don’t agree with one thing”.
And that was about how in the US, people are very used to a certain level of customer service. He does have a point, especially judging by the flood of questions and complaints regarding an issue with continuous switching between Edge and 3G networks. This got the Google-T-Mobile-HTC trinity passing a hot potato around for a while.
Personally, I think it’s just growing pains for Google, but the bases of the innovative disruption are already there and the consumer will like that.
Because AT&T has ensnared—and locked in—legions of consumers with the iPhone, the company’s incentive is to minimize their infrastructure spending so that they can maximize per-user profits. AT&T also has a motive to nickel-and-dime you to death, because it has you locked in with that amazing phone and its accompanying ETF.
b. Twitter
Asked by Michelle Blanc about what his thoughts on Twitter and its positive role in the aftermath of the Haiti disaster were, Duncan turned out not to be such a big fan of Twitter after all.
Here is what I think Duncan should do to do to get more out of Twitter:
1. Use TweetDeck (my favourite) or Seesmic (using it on Android since TweetDeck is not available and it’s very good indeed) to separate different streams into columns: “All Friends”, “Direct Messages”, “Mentions”. In TweetDeck, you can also add your Facebook column.
2. If you like Finance, Trading and Investments,
– register for StockTwits
– download the Nasdaq QFolio app for the iPhone in the App store and follow what people are saying on StockTwits for each ticker.
3. Follow people of interest, those with expertise and breaking news, through search or pre-existing lists on other people’s profiles or on TweetDeck’s homepage. e.g. Follow @howardlinzon, and @fredwilson
Here is why I think Twitter is important:
1. Nasdaq has built an iPhone app which leverages StockTwits, which itself leverages Twitter. I bet this is going to be important for algorithmic trading.
3. Twitter has an ecosystem of 50,000 apps, and growing. It has become a platform where people use it for marketing and finance. This is crucial and there area many other details in my criteria for IPO selection in Two IPOs to look forward to in 2010.
4. Remember IRC channels during the Iraq war? Twitter plays that role today, and much more. Breakout news happens there first, and much later on other channels.
5. I was spending some night in New York and at one point in time there were insistent traffic of fire-trucks and I thought “This is not the city that never sleeps – it’s rather the city where you can never sleep”. My first reflex? Checking #NYC on Twitter to see if there was any danger in the vicinity. Similarly, Twitter will become essential for alerting you to any opportunities in your surroundings. That’s part of the power of real-time and location-based services.
6. Twitter allows you to do social computing. Your trusted friends and contacts will help when you have a genuine question and if you are helpful too.
7. Last but not least… Dell made $6.5M through Twitter channels sales in two years.
Solar
I was a bit disappointed to hear that solar would have some difficulties along the 2010 because of a supply glut. However, stumbling blocks can turn into stepping stones – this may be an opportunity to regularly stock up on the equities, value-averaging along the way until the big break provided the choice is made carefully.
How Deloitte leveraged Social Media for TMT Predictions 2010
Deloitte did very well in leveraging Social Media prior and up to the event. First, they decided to open up submissions from the public, leveraging user-generated content.
They further leveraged several social media applications, services and strategies and Katheline Jean-Pierre has been a driving force behind that, and I actually learned about the MyTMT prediction through her Facebook and Twitter feeds.
Deloitte was present on the Web, on Twitter, and on Facebook, together with UStream, YouTube etc…
Deloitte called upon Laurent Maisonnave of ZeAgence to build upon his social media and video streaming skills – the event was filmed and streamed to Deloitte’s UStream channel in realtime over the web.
They leveraged the Wildfire application for Facebook, which allows campaign management. Any participant could upload their videos and then invite their Facebook friends to vote through the Wildfire app embedded in Deloitte’s MyTMT web page.
Before and during the event, Deloitte had communicated and prominently displayed its hashtag for the event (#TMTPrediction2010 or #TMTPred2010) for others to include in their Tweets.
This morning, I was also flabbergasted to learn that my prediction was shown to 400 Business people at the event in Toronto.
Actually, it will also be shown throughout Canada during Deloitte’s stops in major cities during their TMT Prediction events. I believe they are:
Winnipeg, Quebec, Ottawa, Calgary, Halifax and Vancouver.
Thanks Deloitte for this opportunity and kudos to the team, Duncan, Robert, Peter, Katheline, Laurent and the Jury members.
The Apple tablet is said to be announced in January 2010 and I believe Apple will be shaking a few industries in one fell swoop. In this post I make a few predictions about the tablet as well as analyze what Apple does well and what they should do.
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